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Calgary +180 over Carolina
8:00 PM EST. On paper this is the most lopsided matchup on the board ? 7-1-1 Carolina, winners of seven straight, against 1-6 Calgary ...
Minnesota -1½ +136 over Columbus
6:00 PM EST. We do not lay -183 on hockey games, so the moneyline was never an option here ? but laying a goal and a half at +136 absolutely...
Tampa Bay +118 over Pittsburgh
1:00 PM EST. We need to talk about this one honestly, because our first look at this game had us on Pittsburgh, and the closer we...
Cleveland +4½ -110 over Baltimore
1:00 PM EST. The entire move is Lamar Jackson's ankle. He hasn't practiced all week, he's officially "day-to-day," and the line touched ...
LA Chargers +8½ -110 over Kansas City
4:25 PM EST. Yes, the Chargers are 0-5 ? worst start since 2003. Yes, Justin Herbert has nine turnovers behind four rookie starters on...
New Orleans -1½ -110 over NY Giants
1:00 PM EST. It's the Jameis Winston revenge game, baby. Jameis is 3-0 against the spread since taking over the 3-1-1 Giants ? first ...
Dallas -104 over Green Bay
8:20 PM EST. This one is not about X's and O's, so we're not going to pretend it is. This one is buy low, sell high in its purest form....
Houston +120 over Jacksonville
9:30 AM EST. Football with your breakfast, and a market that has already changed its mind. Houston opened as the small favorite, ...
Early leans & analysis 0
NFL Week: 6 What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be move...
Reader's Comments
Sep 28, 2026 13:28:08
While I love your contrarian viewpoint, IMHO, you overdue it sometime. Just because the public likes something, it doesn't automatically mean that it is wrong. If you want to say there is extra value on the underdog, because the public is overplaying the favorite, that is valid. But being on a public choice doesn't make it loser if all your analysis points that way. Sometimes you take the opposite of what your logic and analysis tells you because "it's too good to be true". Is it always?
Joe P.
Sep 20, 2026 09:55:23
Quite a year thus far! Keep up the great work, it's much appreciated.
Ralph
Sep 8, 2026 20:45:59
3 for 3 on CFL again, good work!
Tom