Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH

Streaming: CBSSN

Temple +6½ -110 over Toledo

3:00 PM EST. If you're looking for the team that's easier to bet here, congratulations, you've found Toledo. The Rockets just hung 63 points on Central Connecticut while Temple comes stumbling in after a 27-9 loss to Penn State with a quarterback situation that looks like they're drawing names out of a hat. Toledo scored nine touchdowns last week. Temple scored nine points. Now go ask somebody which team they want to bet. We haven't found one tout, one talking head or one so-called expert making a case for Temple. That's usually about the time we start getting interested.

That 27-9 Temple loss deserves a closer look because the final score makes it appear considerably worse than it was. The Owls were tied with Penn State 3-3 until the final seconds of the first half and twice stopped the Nittany Lions near the goal line. Temple wasn't being tossed around like some sacrificial lamb collecting a check. K.C. Keeler has won everywhere he's been, including national championships at the FCS level, and what he's building at Temple is beginning to show up defensively. Compare that with Toledo's 63-point explosion against an FCS Central Connecticut team and we'll resist planning the Rockets' championship parade just yet. They beat the living shit out of Central Connecticut. Wonderful. Somebody alert the College Football Playoff committee.

And let's remember what Toledo did immediately before becoming everybody's new favorite Group of Six team. The Rockets went to Michigan State and blew a fourth-quarter lead. Then they dropped about six weight classes, rolled up more than 500 yards against Central Connecticut and suddenly they're laying almost a touchdown to Temple. That's precisely the type of one-week transformation that gets our attention. Toledo's stock went straight through the roof while Temple's is buried underneath the basement after playing Penn State. You're being invited to buy Toledo after 63 points and sell Temple after nine. We'd rather do the exact opposite.

Temple doesn't have to solve its quarterback situation Saturday afternoon for us to cash this ticket. The Owls have already demonstrated that their defense travels, and Keveun Mason has given them something productive on the ground with 234 rushing yards through two games. More importantly, we're getting +6½ because one team just produced a video-game score while the other produced nine points in Happy Valley. That's perception doing most of the work here. Everyone else can stare at 63-10 and happily lay the points. We'll take the ugly Owls, the six-and-a-half and a coach who's been winning football games since some of these Toledo players' parents were in high school.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

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Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton, FL

Streaming:ESPN+

Florida International +6½ -110 over Florida Atlantic

7:00 PM EST. Ha ha ha ha. We were already interested in FIU, and then we started looking around and discovered plenty of tout services lining up to lay the points with Florida Atlantic. Beautiful. Apparently we're supposed to lay almost a touchdown because FAU has the more experienced quarterback, converts efficiently in the red zone and has played the tougher schedule. This is classic tout handicapping: assemble three statistics that support the favorite, completely ignore everything uncomfortable and confidently tell everyone to lay the points. The more people we see lining up to sell Florida Atlantic, the more we want FIU.

Here's the uncomfortable part that doesn't seem to make the sales pitch: Florida Atlantic can't stop anybody. The Owls have already allowed 96 points in two games, and this isn't some brand-new problem. Their defense has been getting lit up for months. Yet we're supposed to lay almost a touchdown because FAU's quarterback has experience? Wonderful. He may need every bit of that experience if his defense keeps handing touchdowns to the opposition like Costco samples. FAU can absolutely score. Nobody is disputing that. We're simply not interested in spotting 6½ points with a team that routinely turns Saturdays into track meets.

FIU isn't showing up here with a water pistol either. JJ Kohl just threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against Buffalo, and the Panthers probably deserved better in their opener against South Florida than the final result suggests. So now we're getting nearly a touchdown with an offense that has demonstrated it can move the football against a defense that has demonstrated it can make almost anybody look dangerous. If you're laying 6½ with FAU, you're essentially betting that eventually its offense scores enough points to outrun whatever the defense sets on fire. That's not a wager. That's an insurance claim.

And that's really all this comes down to. FAU beat Navy, the offensive numbers look pretty and plenty of tout services are lining up to explain why laying the points is the smart play. Perfect. They can have it. Forget what happened in this rivalry three years ago, forget meaningless ATS trends and forget how many points the winning team has historically scored. We're dealing with these two teams, right now, and we're getting 6½ points against a favorite that has allowed 96 points in two games. The touts can have Florida Atlantic. We'll take the points and cheer for every defensive disaster.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

AmFirst Stadium, Jacksonville, AL

Streaming: ESPN+

Georgia Southern +3½ -110 over Jacksonville St.

7:00 PM EST. Georgia Southern just lost 22-7 at Clemson, so there isn't going to be a stampede to the betting window to grab the Eagles. Good. That's precisely when we're interested. That Clemson game was an ugly, weather-interrupted mess, but Georgia Southern was within one score for most of the afternoon and held Clemson to 22 points in Death Valley. Now the Eagles drop several weight classes and somehow we're getting more than a field goal against Jacksonville State. If Georgia Southern can spend an afternoon trading punches with Clemson, we're not particularly frightened about sending them to Jacksonville, Alabama.

Jacksonville State has already been through the fucking washing machine this season. This will be its fourth consecutive week playing football, with difficult road trips already behind it and last week's adventure at Ohio requiring four overtimes before the Gamecocks finally lost 29-27. That's not some meaningless scheduling footnote. Jacksonville State quarterback Caden Creel threw 24 passes and carried the ball another 29 times. That's 53 touches for your quarterback before you even start counting the hits he absorbed when he wasn't carrying the football. Now everybody gets six days to ice themselves down, climb out of bed and do it again.

Meanwhile, that Georgia Southern loss at Clemson might have been more encouraging than the scoreboard suggests. Max Johnson threw for 244 yards without an interception, Ashton Hollins had 97 receiving yards and the Eagles' defense kept them hanging around against a team that was supposed to dispose of them comfortably. Compare that with Jacksonville State, which just failed to finish off an Ohio team that was digging so deep into its quarterback room it was getting close to asking whether anyone in the marching band had played the position in high school. One team comes in off a respectable loss to Clemson. The other comes home after playing enough overtime football to qualify for time-and-a-half.

And we get the hook. That's the important part. Jacksonville State doesn't have to be bad for Georgia Southern +3½ to be the right side. This looks like two fairly comparable teams being priced as though the Gamecocks deserve considerably more respect simply because they're back home. We'll disagree. Georgia Southern has already demonstrated that its defense can keep it attached to a game against much better competition, and Jacksonville State has been playing meaningful football every Saturday since some people were still squeezing in their final summer barbecue. Give us the fresher team, the defense and that beautiful half-point sitting above the field goal.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Clemson -3 -110 over North Carolina

12:00 PM EST. When was the last time Clemson's stock was this low? Seriously. The Tigers are 1-1, their offense has produced all of 32 points in two games, their starting quarterback is hurt, and true freshman Tait Reynolds is getting his first career start. Waiting on the other sideline is Bill Belichick, North Carolina is 2-0, and virtually everything we've read this week explains why the Tar Heels are the right side. Bill Belichick against a freshman quarterback? How could anyone possibly bet Clemson? That's precisely why we're betting Clemson.

This number opened considerably higher and has been hammered down toward a field goal because nobody trusts the Tigers anymore. We understand why. Clemson was embarrassed by LSU and then slogged through a 22-7 win over Georgia Southern that wasn't exactly suitable for framing. Reynolds threw for 178 yards after replacing Christopher Vizzina and now Dabo Swinney is handing him the keys. Meanwhile, North Carolina just beat East Tennessee State 35-3, Billy Edwards Jr. has yet to throw an interception and Belichick's arrival has given the Tar Heels instant credibility. One program suddenly feels fresh and interesting. The other feels like somebody found Clemson's dynasty in a box marked "FREE" at a garage sale.

But here's the part that interests us: despite all of that, Clemson is still favored. If the Tigers are finished, their offense is hopeless, Reynolds is walking into Belichick's laboratory and undefeated North Carolina is the ascending team, then what the hell are the Tar Heels doing getting points? The market has already chopped this number down dramatically. At some point the discount becomes the handicap. We couldn't care less that Clemson dominated this series years ago or covered some meaningless collection of spreads under circumstances that have nothing to do with Saturday. We're interested in buying Clemson today, when practically nobody wants anything to do with them.

There may not be another point this season when Clemson is available this cheaply at Death Valley against an opponent like North Carolina. The Tigers still have a defense capable of carrying an offense that's trying to find itself, and perhaps getting away from what wasn't working at quarterback isn't the catastrophe everyone is treating it as. Reynolds doesn't have to become Trevor Lawrence by lunchtime. More importantly, we're laying only a field goal because the market has spent two weeks throwing Clemson stock into the dumpster. Everybody else can take Belichick, the undefeated record and the freshman-quarterback narrative. We'll buy Clemson while it's sitting on the clearance rack with a sticker that says everything must go.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV

Streaming: CW

Texas State -2½ -105 over North Texas 

12:00 PM EST. North Texas just beat UNLV 44-6, and suddenly the Mean Green are everybody's new Group of Six sweetheart. We understand it. They looked fantastic. They also outgained Indiana in their opener despite the ugly final score, so there are now two games worth of evidence for anyone looking to make the case that North Texas is much better than expected. Meanwhile, Texas State is 0-2, has turned the ball over six times and just found a particularly painful way to lose to UTSA in the final seconds. So here's our question: If North Texas is this good and Texas State is this bad, why the hell are the Bobcats favored?

Texas State's 0-2 record doesn't tell us much about how it has actually played. The Bobcats were competitive with Texas despite falling into a huge early hole, and last week they had every opportunity to beat UTSA before turnovers and some ridiculous fourth-down results buried them. UTSA converted five of six fourth downs while Texas State went 0-for-1, and the Roadrunners still needed a touchdown in the final seconds to win. That's not something we're interested in projecting forward. Texas State has been making expensive mistakes at precisely the wrong moments. The market sees 0-2. We see a team whose performances have been considerably better than its record.

Now look at North Texas. That 44-6 win is exactly the type of result that sends a team's stock through the roof. The Mean Green didn't merely win; they humiliated UNLV. But UNLV was coming out of an unusual early-season travel sequence that included Week 0 and a trip to Hawaii, and now North Texas has to leave Denton after everybody spent the week telling them how wonderful they are. More importantly, the Mean Green secondary is dealing with injuries against a Texas State offense capable of attacking it through the air. There is some uncertainty surrounding Bobcats receivers Beau Sparks and Zechariah Sample, but assuming they're available, this is hardly the matchup we'd choose to start buying North Texas after its stock just went to the moon.

And that's really the entire handicap. We're selling North Texas high and buying Texas State low. One team is 2-0 against the number and coming off a 38-point demolition. The other is 0-2 and just ripped its own heart out in the final seconds. Yet when they meet in San Marcos, bookmakers aren't making North Texas the favorite. They're asking you to lay points with the winless team. That's going to look completely backwards to a lot of bettors, which is exactly how we like it. Let everybody chase last Saturday's 44-6 box score. We'll take the 0-2 Bobcats at a cheap price before somebody notices they've been playing a hell of a lot better than their record suggests.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS

Streaming: ABC

Mississippi +130 over LSU

7:30 PM EST. We've spent the entire week looking for somebody—anybody—who wants Ole Miss. We're still looking. Every tout, talking head, podcast expert and guy with a microphone seems to have LSU. The Tigers destroyed Clemson 51-10, Lane Kiffin is returning to Oxford as Public Enemy No. 1, Sam Leavitt is playing, and apparently LSU has already won the game sometime between College GameDay and kickoff. Fine. But when everybody is standing on the same side of the boat, we start wondering when the fucking thing is going to tip over. Ole Miss is a top-10 team, at home, getting a field goal, and you'd think we were recommending the Oxford High School junior varsity.

The buildup here has become completely insane. Tickets are north of $600. GameDay is coming. Security has been beefed up. Kiffin didn't merely leave Ole Miss; he took coaches, staff and players with him, and Oxford has spent months preparing for his return like Darth Vader is flying back into town. The emotion will be off the charts. But here's what nobody seems willing to consider: Can there be too much emotion? Ole Miss has been hearing about this game for nine months. Revenge Lane. Beat Lane. Boo Lane. Make Lane miserable. At some point you aren't preparing for a football game anymore; you're preparing for an exorcism. The Rebels don't get 10 points on the scoreboard because everyone in The Grove hates the visiting coach.

Meanwhile, LSU's warts have conveniently disappeared from the discussion. The Tigers gave up five sacks to Louisiana Tech and Leavitt has already thrown four interceptions, including three last week. But apparently none of that counts because LSU was "looking ahead." Isn't that convenient? Play great and you're a national-title monster. Play poorly and you were thinking about Ole Miss. Heads LSU wins, tails LSU was distracted. Ole Miss, meanwhile, has Trinidad Chambliss, Kewan Lacy and plenty of offensive firepower of its own. This isn't some helpless home dog praying the stadium carries it for four quarters. These guys can actually fucking play.

And that's what brings us back to the number. With everything surrounding this game—with LSU destroying Clemson, Kiffin knowing the Ole Miss personnel, Leavitt cleared to play and virtually the entire handicapping world seemingly lined up behind the Tigers—why is LSU only laying a field goal? If LSU is everything we're being told it is and Ole Miss is about to emotionally combust in front of its former coach, shouldn't this be LSU -5? -6? Maybe more? Instead, bookmakers are hanging the most seductive number imaginable on the team everybody already wants. We'll pass. Let everybody else pay $600 for a ticket, paint their face purple and gold and line up at the window with LSU. We'll take the team nobody wants, in the stadium where everybody wants blood, plus the field goal.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Rice Stadium - Houston, Texas

Streaming: ESPN+

Rice +9½ over Western Michigan

7:00 PM EST. Western Michigan nearly pulled off the shocker against Michigan in Week 1, and we're still paying for it. That performance immediately changed how the Broncos are viewed, and last week's 49-14 win over Monmouth did nothing to cool things down. So now Western Michigan travels to Houston laying close to double digits against Rice. Sounds reasonable until you look underneath that 49-14 score and discover that Monmouth actually outgained Western Michigan 431-414. Four failed fourth downs and a minus-two turnover differential helped turn a competitive football game into something that looked like an execution in the Sunday morning box score.

Now Western Michigan heads into the Houston heat with Boise State waiting next week in Kalamazoo. We're generally careful with the old "look-ahead" narrative because sometimes it's just handicapping filler used when nobody has anything better to say. Here, however, the scheduling spot fits nicely with an inflated number. Western Michigan just received national attention for nearly beating Michigan, followed it with a 35-point victory and has a much bigger game sitting directly behind this one. Rice is the piece of broccoli sitting between two steaks. Nobody is excited about eating it, but unfortunately the Broncos still have to finish what's on the plate.

Rice also happens to be an annoying opponent to lay this many points against because the Owls have almost no interest in playing quickly or throwing the football. Jacurri Brown has dropped back just 23 times through two starts, and Rice ran the ball 70 times in its opener. That's not an offense; that's a hostage negotiation with the game clock. Western Michigan isn't exactly operating the Greatest Show on Turf either. Put two run-heavy, slow-moving teams together and possessions disappear. Every five-minute drive that ends without points is beautiful when you're holding +9½. Before long it's the fourth quarter and somebody realizes there have been about six possessions since dinner.

And throw Rice's 52-0 loss at Notre Dame straight into the garbage. The Owls lost four fumbles in South Bend and were never realistically winning that game anyway. What matters is the price we're getting now. Western Michigan's stock is elevated because of how it looked against Michigan and because anyone casually checking last week's score sees 49-14 without seeing what actually happened. Rice's stock couldn't be much lower after getting vaporized by Notre Dame. Perfect. We'll take the ugly home dog, the Houston heat, the running clock and nine-and-a-half points in a game that might have fewer possessions than a guy whose wife just found his Tinder account.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

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