Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Diego +130 over Texas

Lucas Giolito (RHP - SDP, 4.56 ERA) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP - TEX, 4.23 ERA)

2:35 PM EST. We are jumping right back to San Diego today! They definitely have a legitimate chance to pull the upset as a road dog again. The gap between these starting pitchers is smaller than the market may perceive. Lucas Giolito's 4.56 ERA isn't impressive on the surface, but Eovaldi has shown significant signs of vulnerability himself. Giolito owns a 5.61 K/9 and has struggled with command (7.36 BB/9), yet he has limited damage by allowing just 1.05 HR/9 and maintaining a respectable 74.8% strand rate. While his 5.95 FIP and 6.41 xFIP suggest some risk, the Padres don't necessarily need an ace-level outing from him if their offense can pressure Eovaldi early. Giolito's ability to keep the ball in the yard has been one of the few stabilizing factors in his profile and could be important against a Texas lineup that relies heavily on extra-base power.

Nathan Eovaldi enters with a 4.23 ERA and a 6-7 record, but several underlying metrics raise concerns. The veteran right-hander has surrendered 1.75 HR/9, one of the highest rates among qualified starters, while his 20.5% HR/FB rate suggests hitters have consistently squared him up. Although Eovaldi still possesses solid strikeout ability (8.55 K/9) and excellent control (2.16 BB/9), his 4.66 FIP and 4.43 xERA indicate his performance has been closer to league average than dominant. Opponents have taken advantage of mistakes in the strike zone, and his tendency to allow home runs creates opportunities for a San Diego lineup capable of changing a game with one swing.

Backing San Diego on the road again comes down to offensive upside and the potential for Eovaldi's home-run issues to resurface. Texas may have the more recognizable starter, but Eovaldi's elevated HR/9, combined with a 4.43 xERA and 4.66 FIP, suggests he is far from untouchable. Meanwhile, Giolito's ability to suppress home runs gives him a path to outperform expectations if he can avoid free passes. In a matchup where neither starter carries elite current form, take the money, because San Diego only needs a competitive start from Giolito before turning the game over to its bullpen. With Eovaldi allowing hard contact at an elevated rate and carrying a 4.23 ERA supported by middling underlying metrics, the Padres have a strong opportunity to steal a road victory again today.

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Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Pittsburgh -1½ +105 over Colorado

Jared Jones (RHP - PIT) vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP - COL)

3:10 PM EST. Pittsburgh on the run line starts with the pitching matchup, where the surface numbers don't tell the full story. Jared Jones enters with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP across 17.1 innings, but his underlying metrics suggest positive regression is coming. The hard-throwing right-hander is averaging 98.8 mph on his fastball while posting a solid 23.0% strikeout rate, 15.0% K-BB rate, and 15.3% swinging-strike rate. His 5.13 xERA and 3.96 xFIP are notably better than his actual ERA, indicating some poor luck has inflated his results. Jones has also struck out batters at a 9.35 K/9 clip, giving Pittsburgh a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon against a Colorado lineup that has struggled to consistently generate offense away from favorable hitting conditions.

Michael Lorenzen's profile is far more concerning. The veteran right-hander owns a 7.13 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and 2-8 record through 70.2 innings. Unlike Jones, Lorenzen's underlying numbers still point toward significant problems. His 5.63 xERA, 4.84 FIP, and 4.41 xFIP all remain well below league average, while opponents have punished him for 1.53 HR/9. Perhaps most alarming is his .390 BABIP and just 61.8% strand rate, showing an inability to escape trouble once runners reach base. Even with a respectable 7.64 K/9, Lorenzen has allowed consistent hard contact and has struggled to miss enough bats to offset the damage. Pittsburgh should have opportunities to string together rallies against a pitcher who has surrendered at least one home run in numerous outings this season.

Pittsburgh's run-line appeal comes from the gap between the underlying performance of these starters. Jones' elite velocity, strong strikeout indicators, and favorable expected metrics suggest his current ERA is misleading, while Lorenzen's advanced numbers confirm that his struggles are largely deserved. Colorado's pitching staff has been one of the league's weakest units, and Lorenzen's combination of elevated walk rate (3.18 BB/9) and home-run issues creates significant blow-up potential. If Jones performs closer to his 4.30-5.13 expected range rather than his 6.23 ERA, Pittsburgh holds a clear edge on the mound. Given Lorenzen's 7.13 ERA, 1.53 HR/9, and inability to consistently work deep into games, backing the Pirates -1.5 run line is the play in what will be a high scoring game in Coors field, especially if Pittsburgh's offense can capitalize early and force Colorado into its vulnerable bullpen.

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Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

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