MLB Free Picks for

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change
San Francisco+105 over Los Angeles Dodgers
Oracle Park – San Francisco, CA
9:05 PM ET. The market sees Clayton Kershaw and reflexively tilts toward the Dodgers. Legacy and laundry — it’s a theme we’ve hammered before — and it’s alive here. Kershaw’s name still carries tax, even though the reality on the field no longer matches the reputation. Across from him is Logan Webb, who has been flat-out better in every measurable category, yet we’re offered Webb at plus money. That’s a wager we’ll make every time.
On the surface, Kershaw’s résumé looks tidy: 10-2 with a 3.27 ERA. Scratch it, and the picture changes. His fastball barely cracks 88, he’s striking out just 6.2 per nine, and his arsenal has eroded to the point where the stat line masks decline. His 3.52 FIP and 2.2 WAR are solid but far from elite.
Now stack that against Webb. He owns a 14-9 record with a 3.12 ERA, nearly 10 K’s per nine, a 53% ground-ball rate, and a sparkling 2.65 FIP. Webb’s WAR sits at 4.8, more than double Kershaw’s, and he’s logged 20 quality starts this season — more than Kershaw has starts, period. Even more telling is that Webb has done this while battling extreme variance, saddled with a .344 BABIP. These are ace-level numbers hidden beneath the
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Our Pick
San Francisco +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)
MLB Historical - Totals
Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Last 30 Days | 20 | 24 | 0.00 | +3.54 |
Season to Date | 144 | 173 | 0.00 | +34.05 |