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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Winnipeg -4 over Ottawa

Princess Auto Stadium – Winnipeg, MB

7:30 PM ET. This is the buy-low point on the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, and we’re not going to miss it. The market is treating Winnipeg like a .500 team that can’t hold leads or stop anyone, which technically isn’t wrong — they’ve dropped to 4-4 and just blew a 17-point cushion against Calgary. The surface-level stats are ugly. The Bombers are bottom-three in net defence, dead last in passing yards per game, and have a negative point differential. That’s what the market is reacting to. We’re reacting to something else.

Winnipeg was up 17-0 before it all went sideways. They dominated the first half, and there were moments where they looked like the Bombers of old. This team still owns the league’s most punishing rushing attack, led by Brady Oliveira and a unit that averages nearly 120 yards per game. They’ve been here before. They’ve weathered midseason lulls and still found themselves in the Grey Cup more often than not. The pedigree is intact, and we’re betting on that pedigree.

As for Ottawa, last week’s explosion was as misleading as it gets. A 373-yard night from Dru Brown, three 100-yard receivers, and 84 more on the ground from Stanback — that all looks great on the stat sheet. Now ask yourself if you believe it’s sustainable. This is a team that has limped through the first half of the season and feasted on a Toronto defence that couldn’t get off the field. That was more about the Argos than it was the Redblacks.

Ottawa’s been sneaky solid against the run, but this is a different beast. Winnipeg’s physicality on the ground wears teams down, and when the defence starts creeping up, Zach Collaros still has enough in the tank to punish a secondary with play-action. There’s also a major coaching edge in this one — Winnipeg knows how to get off the mat. Ottawa rarely strings together quality efforts.

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