Bookmaker   +3 -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Toronto +3 over Edmonton

Commonwealth Stadium – Edmonton, AB

8:00 PM ET. This one doesn’t pass the smell test. The Elks laying points to anyone with a pulse is already enough to raise an eyebrow, but laying a full field goal to an Argos squad that can hang crooked numbers on the scoreboard? That’s a bet we’ll gladly step in front of.

Edmonton’s defense remains a liability of the highest order. The offseason changes were cosmetic. The same problems remain — they can’t get off the field, they can’t generate pressure, and they can’t cover. The Elks rank second-last in the CFL in points allowed (30.1), dead last in sacks (5), opponent pass efficiency (122.5), and takeaways (9). Their pass defense is particularly brutal, giving up a completion rate of 76.7% and over 300 yards per game through the air. That’s not just bad. That’s historically bad.

Enter Nick Arbuckle. Some quarterbacks in this league never get the credit they deserve, and Arbuckle is firmly in that group. He’s thrown for 2,651 yards and 16 touchdowns while dragging Toronto into competitive territory week after week. Despite the chaos around him — a leaky O-line, shaky special teams, and a defense giving up a league-worst 32.4 points per game — Arbuckle has kept the Argos in games they had no business being in. He’s passed for 300+ yards in three straight, despite getting hit more than any QB should. This week, against a defense that can’t generate pressure and can’t cover, he’s poised to thrive again.

Toronto has scored 30 or more in five of their last seven games, averaging 34.4 over that span. Their team total is set at 25.5 — a bar they’ve cleared against far better defenses than this. It’s not hard to picture them sailing over that number again.

On the other side, Edmonton has been playing better football. They’ve shown fight in each of their last three, with a narrow loss to Hamilton in Week 9 and another close call against Saskatchewan before finally cashing in with a much-needed win in Montreal. That was an emotional lift for a team that’s been dying for one. The Elks have some momentum, and this is a winnable game — Toronto has made a habit of blowing games late, and the Elks know it.

Still, this isn’t about sentiment or feel-good wins. It’s about value, and we’re not laying points with a team that’s hemorrhaging yards and hasn’t proven it can close. Sportsbooks are asking you to believe Edmonton’s defense can survive a full 60 minutes against one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league. That’s a tall ask.

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