Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Hamilton +2½ over Saskatchewan

Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK

3:00 PM ET. On the surface, Saskatchewan checks more boxes. They’re coming off a bye, they’re at home, and they have the more balanced offense. They’ve got the pass rush, the league’s second-best run defense, and arguably the best all-purpose back in A.J. Ouellette. They’ve also already beaten Hamilton once this season. So why are we leaning the other way? Because this number is all wrong.

Let’s start with Hamilton’s “one-dimensional” offense. Sure, they’re not chewing up yards on the ground, but that hasn’t mattered. Bo Levi Mitchell is slinging it. He leads the CFL in passing yards (2,856), and he’s doing it with efficiency and confidence. This isn’t a team that needs balance to win. Their entire offense is built to exploit secondaries, and Saskatchewan’s has quietly shown some cracks over the past few weeks.

The Riders have allowed over 270 yards through the air in three of their last four. They’ve faced Trevor Harris, Vernon Adams Jr., and Zach Collaros — and each of those QBs had long stretches of success. Mitchell is more than capable of doing the same, especially if the Ticats can neutralize Saskatchewan’s pass rush with quick-hitting throws and tempo.

The market is also treating Saskatchewan’s win in Week 2 like it was a statement — it wasn’t. The Riders won that game 33–30 in overtime after Hamilton blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead. The Ticats had more first downs, more passing yards, and more time of possession. It was a coin flip that went against them. We get a better number here because of it.

Then there’s the bye week narrative. Yes, the Riders are rested, but rust matters too. Teams off a bye this year are just 2–6 ATS. Hamilton, meanwhile, has rattled off six wins in seven games and is playing its best football of the season. The defense has been steady, the offense is clicking, and this team isn’t backing down on the road.

There’s talk of injuries in the Ticats secondary, but that’s already priced in. Katsantonis and Peters are important, but Hamilton's defensive scheme rarely leaves its DBs on an island. They disguise coverages and force teams to take the underneath stuff. That plays perfectly into Trevor Harris’s conservative approach.

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