Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Montreal +7½ over B.C. Lions

BC Place, Vancouver, BC

7:00 PM ET. The optics are ugly. Montreal just lost at home to the Edmonton Elks. They’re on the road. They’re banged up. They’re down to their third-string quarterback. And now they’re being asked to go west and hang with the CFL’s most explosive offense. It's a tough sell — and that’s exactly why there's value here.

The line is inflated. The market is betting into the highlight reels and scoreboard splash plays without stopping to ask whether BC is really worthy of this price. The Lions needed overtime to beat Hamilton last week despite putting up 41 points. Before that, they gave up 35 to Saskatchewan, 31 to Toronto, and 30 to Winnipeg. This defense is getting torched — weekly.

B.C. has allowed over 1,200 yards of offense the past three weeks. They’re relying on Nathan Rourke to win them shootouts, and so far, he’s done it. He’s a stud, no doubt — but this game has trap written all over it.

Montreal’s defensive line is going to be the best unit on the field. The Als lead the CFL in sacks (31) and pressure rate. They’ve hit opposing QBs 70 times this season. That front four can disrupt rhythm, collapse the pocket, and change the tempo of a game. If you want to beat Rourke, you have to make him uncomfortable — and this is the unit that can do it.

Yes, the Als are missing bodies on offense. Caleb Evans is starting, and the cupboard looks thin. That’s all baked in. What isn’t being accounted for is the conservative game script they’re likely to run. Ball control, time of possession, grinding drives — if the Als can keep the Lions offense on the sideline, they don’t need 35 points to cover this number.

B.C. doesn’t play well in these spots either. The Lions are 0-3 ATS this season when laying more than a touchdown. They're flashy, they rack up yards, and they’ve got a shiny quarterback — but they don’t close the back door.

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