Bookmaker    +7 -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Montreal +7 over Winnipeg

Molson Stadium – Montreal, QC

7:30 PM ET. It wasn’t long ago that these two were the class of the league. Both came out of the gate flying at 3-0, and the market quickly made up its mind: these were Grey Cup favorites. Fast forward seven weeks, and that early shine has completely worn off.

Montreal has dropped five of its last seven. Winnipeg has dropped four of its last six. They're a combined 4-9 since their undefeated starts, and neither team has covered a spread with any consistency. What separates them now is perception.

The Bombers have name recognition. They’ve got the veteran QB. They’ve got Mike O’Shea on the sideline. So when Montreal loses its third-string QB to injury, the market flinches and moves the line from -4½ to -6½ like this is some kind of mismatch. It isn’t.

James Morgan came in cold last week and held his own. He completed 20-of-33 for 211 yards and a score after taking over in the second quarter. That was on the road. This week, he’s had first-team reps and home-field crowd noise working in his favor. Montreal isn’t running out a scrub. They’re rolling with a guy who played in the SEC and has now seen live bullets in a CFL game. Meanwhile, what’s Winnipeg doing with leads? Blowing them.

They were up 20-3 at halftime on Ottawa and needed a walk-off field goal to survive. The week before that, they coughed up a 17-point lead to Calgary. In Week 9, they needed two house calls on kick returns just to sneak past a lifeless Toronto side. This isn’t a team you want to spot points with — let alone this many on the road.

The Bombers are turnover-prone, mistake-prone, and mentally fragile. They lead the league in giveaways (28) and sit dead last in turnover differential (-11). That won’t play well against a Montreal defense that generates heat, creates havoc, and allows the second-fewest yards per play in the CFL.

So yes, Montreal’s down to their fourth-string QB. Yes, they’re on short rest. But they’re also the more physical team, they’re at home, and they’re getting inflated points because the name on the other jersey still carries weight. That’s not enough to cover this number.

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