Bookmaker    o53½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Edmonton/Ottawa Over 53½

TD Place Stadium – Ottawa, ON

7:30 PM ET. Let’s start with what the market thinks it knows: two struggling offenses, a backup QB on one side, and a plodding, dink-and-dunk scheme on the other. On the surface, that doesn’t scream fireworks. Which is exactly why the number is soft.

The total opened at 53.5 and hasn’t budged, despite a litany of talking points for the Under crowd. The Elks have gone Under in five straight. Ottawa can’t throw it downfield without Dru Brown. Dustin Crum doesn’t scare anyone through the air. Edmonton's passing game is built around screens to Justin Rankin. All of it checks out. But what the market is missing—again—is that this game isn’t about efficient, slow drives. It’s about chaos. And chaos breeds points.

Crum is raw but dangerous. He gets moving, and suddenly the play breaks down into sandlot football. That’s where big plays come from—not because the design was good, but because nobody’s in the right place. Edmonton has the league’s worst pass defense. They give up huge chunks when things go off script. That’s not a bug, it’s a feature. Crum may not be polished, but he extends plays, and this secondary can’t cover for more than two seconds.

Then there’s the other side. Cody Fajardo has stabilized the Elks, and while his wideouts are replacement level, Ottawa’s secondary is down three starters and just gave up nearly 400 yards to a bad passing attack. This is Fajardo’s softest matchup to date. He won’t need deep threats when his checkdowns are running for 12 yards a pop.

This isn’t an “Over” because these offenses are efficient—it’s an Over because both defenses are depleted and can’t tackle in space. Add to that a forecast of clear skies and light winds, and you’ve got the recipe: mobile QBs, second-string DBs, and a game that spirals into a track meet whether the coaches want it or not.

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