Bookmaker    +3½ -110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Toronto +3½ over B.C.

BMO Field – Toronto, ON

3:00 PM ET. There’s a massive gap in the standings here and an even bigger one in public perception. The Lions are 7-3. The Argos are 2-8. The narrative writes itself: Toronto can’t run, can’t stop the run, can’t protect the quarterback, and can’t win football games. That’s the pitch, anyway. It’s also why we get the hook on a home dog — and we’re going to bite.

Let’s talk about what’s not being priced in. Since Chad Kelly went down, Nick Arbuckle has quietly been among the most productive passers in the league. Toronto’s rushing attack is a dead letter, but Arbuckle has had no choice but to throw early and often — and he’s done so with surprising efficiency. The Argos have topped their team total in 7 of their last 8, and Arbuckle has tossed for nearly 2,000 yards over that stretch.

That matters against a B.C. team that’s being crowned before the coronation. The Lions look explosive on paper — top of the league in yards per play, yards per game, and chunk plays — but that offense masks a defense that’s leaking big plays all over the yard. B.C. ranks near the bottom of the league in opponent pass efficiency and leads the CFL in 30+ yard completions allowed.

So while the Lions might torch this Toronto defense — and they will — that same script opens up garbage-time production, backdoor potential, and opportunities for Arbuckle to match pace for long stretches. He’s already shown he can, and the market has already shown it’s not respecting it.

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