Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Ottawa +7 over BC Lions

TD Place – Ottawa, ON

7:30 PM ET. The market has fallen in love with BC’s box scores. Hang 34 points and pile up 442 yards against Toronto and suddenly the Lions are “back.” They’ve dropped 32 or more in five of their last six, Nathan Rourke is putting up video-game numbers, James Butler leads the league in rushing, and Keon Hatcher has gone over a thousand yards. The narrative writes itself — this is an unstoppable offense. Maybe it is. But if BC was really that unstoppable, why are they sitting below .500 at 5-6?

That’s because the other side of the ball is a tire fire. The Lions have allowed 30+ in four of their last five and gave up 52 to Toronto last week. Their pass defense ranks second-last, their run defense isn’t much better, and they’ve been outscored by nearly 10 points per game over their last five. It’s great to look explosive on offense, but when your defense leaks like a sieve, laying road points is a different story.

Enter Ottawa, a 3-8 team that looks like roadkill in the standings. They’re an easy team to dismiss, which is exactly why they’re the value play. Dustin Crum is no star, but he’s not a liability either. He went 23-of-29 for 277 yards last week, added 59 more on the ground, and he gives Ottawa a fighting chance to trade blows. This is not about Ottawa suddenly turning into a Grey Cup contender — it’s about market inflation on a BC team that is being priced like it wins with margin when it doesn’t.

Ottawa has lost five games this year by less than a touchdown. They can’t start fast, they shoot themselves in the foot, and that’s why they’re sitting where they are. But catching a converted touchdown at home against a defense that can’t stop anyone? That’s where the value lies. The market will sell you on BC’s offensive fireworks. We’ll gladly take the points against a Lions defense that hasn’t stopped bleeding all year.

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