Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Saskatchewan +110 over Winnipeg

Princess Auto Stadium – Winnipeg, MB

4:00 PM ET. Saskatchewan goes into Winnipeg sitting on top of the West, two points clear of Calgary, and fresh off a 34-30 win over these same Blue Bombers last week. That was no fluke either—the Riders overcame a sluggish first half, adjusted, and punched back when it mattered. Meanwhile, Winnipeg’s three-game win streak came to an end, leaving them six points adrift in third place.

So why are the Bombers the favorite here? History, not present form. Winnipeg has owned this head-to-head series for years, winning nine of the last 12, including seven straight at home dating back to 2018. They’ve also been covering machines at IG Field, going 7-0 ATS during that stretch while winning by an average of 26 points. That resume looks impressive, but it’s also fully priced into this line.

The truth is the Bombers are no longer the dominant group they once were. Yes, Zach Collaros flashed in Regina with 326 yards and three TDs last week, but he also leads the league in interceptions. Saskatchewan’s defense thrives on turnovers—they lead the CFL with 14 picks—and Collaros forcing throws into coverage is always on the table. That’s a matchup edge that doesn’t show up in the market.

The Riders’ defense has been leaky the past two weeks, coughing up 31 points per game, yet that number is inflated by short fields and lapses, not a fundamental collapse. Trevor Harris hasn’t lit it up recently either, but he hasn’t needed to. This is still a balanced roster that grinds out results, and they’ve proven they can win in Calgary, BC, and at home against these same Bombers.

What we’re being offered here is Winnipeg as a home favorite because of “Banjo Bowl history” and brand equity, not because of current trajectory. The market is telling you to pay a premium for past dominance that doesn’t apply in 2025. We’ll gladly fade that tax. Riders outright.

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