Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Toronto +6½ -110 over Montreal

7:00 PM EST. The opening week of a CFL season often creates exaggerated perceptions, and that's exactly what appears to be happening here. Montreal looked sharp in its season opener, escaped with a victory, and immediately reinforced its reputation as one of the league's elite teams. Toronto, meanwhile, hasn't played a game yet, which leaves bettors relying on offseason projections and assumptions. The result is a point spread that appears to be pricing Montreal at its ceiling while discounting Toronto before it has even taken the field.

The narrative surrounding the Argonauts has been overwhelmingly negative. Many preseason forecasts have them near the bottom of the standings, while Montreal has been mentioned as a legitimate Grey Cup threat. That gap in perception is precisely why Toronto becomes attractive as a sizeable underdog. The betting market tends to overreact to recent results, especially early in the season when there is limited information available. One overtime win does not suddenly make Montreal unbeatable, just as one year away from the field does not automatically mean Chad Kelly can't perform at a high level.

Kelly's return gives Toronto a level of experience and playmaking ability that many seem to be overlooking. He doesn't need to be at his absolute best for the Argonauts to stay within this number. More importantly, divisional games between familiar opponents are rarely as one-sided as the market expects. Montreal deserves to be favored, but asking them to win by a touchdown or more against a rested rival with an experienced quarterback under center feels excessive. With public opinion heavily tilted toward the Alouettes, taking the points with Toronto is the value side.

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