Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Ottawa +9½ -110 over Montreal

7:00 PM EST. The market has installed Montreal as a sizable home favorite, but laying nearly double digits in a divisional matchup is asking a lot from an Alouettes team that hasn't been nearly as dominant as the number suggests. Ottawa enters at 0-2, yet both losses have come against quality opponents and the final scores don't accurately reflect how competitive stretches of those games were. Last week's 44-24 defeat in Toronto got away from the Redblacks in the final minutes after it was still a one-score game deep into the fourth quarter. That's the type of result that creates value the following week, as the betting market tends to overreact to misleading final margins.

Ottawa's offense has been inconsistent, but there are enough pieces to stay within striking distance. Jake Maier has thrown for 484 yards with two touchdown passes, while Ayden Eberhardt has quickly developed into a reliable target after posting 178 receiving yards through two games. The ground game hasn't produced much, but if the Redblacks can establish even a modest rushing attack to complement Maier's short passing game, they'll be capable of sustaining drives and keeping Montreal's offense watching from the sideline. Against the spread, that's often all an underdog needs.

Montreal deserves respect, but the Alouettes haven't consistently rewarded bettors when laying big numbers. Their defense has also shown more vulnerability than expected, giving opponents opportunities to move the football and create scoring chances. Ottawa's defense has been under pressure because of turnovers and poor field position, but if the offense simply protects the football better, the Redblacks are capable of making this a far more competitive contest than the point spread indicates. Divisional games in the CFL also have a tendency to stay tighter than expected, regardless of records.

The inflated number is not necessarily the outright upset. Montreal may very well escape with the victory, but asking them to win by 10 points or more against a desperate divisional rival is a different proposition. Ottawa has enough offensive weapons to answer scores, enough motivation to avoid an 0-3 start, and enough value catching more than a touchdown. Take the Redblacks +9.5.

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