Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Ottawa +13½ -110 over Montreal

7:30 PM EST. This is one of those spots where the number has become too inflated for us to ignore. Montreal has been the better team, but that is already reflected in the price. We are not being asked to pick the Redblacks outright; we are simply asking them to stay within a very generous number against a division opponent. That is a much different proposition, and one we are willing to take a shot with.

Ottawa has shown enough along the way to suggest this team is capable of making Montreal work for a victory. The Redblacks have been inconsistent, particularly when it comes to putting together a complete game, but that inconsistency is exactly why we are getting double digits. We have seen stretches where Ottawa moves the ball, controls the tempo and makes games competitive. The question is not whether Montreal can win — they certainly can — but whether the Alouettes can create enough separation to justify laying this many points.

The previous meeting between these clubs is also part of the reason we believe the market may be overreacting. Montreal handled Ottawa comfortably that night, but we are not interested in simply carrying one result forward and assuming the same script plays out again. Ottawa knows exactly what is required in this matchup, and with this many points available, we are happy to put our money on the Redblacks to fight for four quarters.

Ottawa plus the points is our play. Montreal may very well come away with the victory, but we believe Ottawa has enough competitive ability to keep this within the number. Double digits is simply too much to pass up, and we expect the Redblacks to make this a much closer contest than the betting line suggests.

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