Posted Sunday, December 7 at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

MINNESOTA -8 over Phoenix

Target Center – Minneapolis, MN

7:40 PM ET. At first glance, this number is jarring. Minnesota is laying double digits against a Phoenix team that beat them outright in their most recent meeting, just a few weeks ago. In that NBA Cup matchup, the Suns closed as a 4.5-point underdog and walked away with a dramatic 114–113 win. The narrative heading into that contest was whether or not Phoenix could compete. Now, the same teams reconvene with Minnesota laying twice as many points? That’s not just a line — that’s a statement in response to that result.

When bookmakers post a number that contradicts perception, they’re not being forgetful nor is it an oversight. They’re dangling bait. The naked eye will see that Phoenix won the previous game outright and immediately think the plentiful quantity of points is generous. That’s exactly how it is supposed to appear. Phoenix becomes trendy. The underdog narrative attracts volume. And the trap is set.

The authors of the line are not expecting a repeat of what happened in Phoenix. In fact, this price tells us they expect a more decisive Minnesota performance. The Timberwolves have been one of the league’s most physical, structured, and defensively suffocating units this season. When they’re dialed in, especially at home, they have a penchant to run teams off the floor in decisive fashion. The Wolves after all are defending a five-game home winning streak and 8-3 at home, this season. Phoenix is a sub .500-team on the road. This is important to remember because it speaks into the number. When the price flies in the face of recent history and invites dog money, it’s rarely by accident. The number says the Timberwolves weren’t themselves in the first matchup — and that tonight’s squad is capable of a far more authoritative showing. We’re listening.

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