Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

TORONTO +165 ML over New York

Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, ON

8:30 PM ET. If you ever wanted a clean definition of “buy low and sell high” in the betting market, this matchup fits the model perfectly. New York comes in as the hottest ticket in the NBA at the moment, winning seven of its last eight games and covering in all but one of those outings. Not only are the Knicks winning, they’re doing so convincingly — five of those victories have been by double-digit margins. When a team becomes that wildly profitable against the number, public perception follows immediately, and the line begins baking in a premium.

Now look at Toronto — they are traveling in the opposite direction. The Raptors have failed to cover in seven straight games and have only managed two outright wins during that span. The optics scream “stay away,” and the wagering public has no appetite to get involved with them. When one team is printing tickets and the other is burning them, oddsmakers don’t need to generate any incentives for Knicks money; the demand arrives organically.

Yet here’s the detail that matters: despite New York’s winning run, its head-to-head dominance over Toronto (nine straight wins, eight covers), and most notably its recent 18-point victory over the Raptors a week ago, the line in Canada is extremely modest — short enough to make Toronto appear like a live home underdog. If everything were as obvious as the trend sheets suggest, New York would be laying far more than this small tag.

That tells us the number isn’t about what has already happened — it’s about what the market expects tonight. The NBA Cup also adds volatility: sharper pricing, unfamiliar motivation, and plenty of randomness have already surfaced throughout this tournament. Toronto can exploit that dynamic and the price implies that the will. The wager is simple: the number points toward the underdog. Raps outright.

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