Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

DALLAS -8 over Brooklyn

American Airlines Arena – Dallas, TX

8:30 PM ET. This is not the same Dallas team we watched stumble through November. The Mavericks have finally begun to stabilize, recalibrate, and show signs of a club that is figuring out who it is. Yet the market still grades them by their early-season failures, not their recent resurgence. That’s the crack of daylight we exploit here. While bettors recoil at the idea of laying eight with a 9–16 team, that instinct is rooted in outdated perception rather than present-day performance.

Look at what Dallas has done in December: they went into Denver — one of the toughest environments in basketball — and beat the Nuggets outright as a double-digit underdog. They followed that up with wins over Miami and Houston, two playoff-caliber squads with contrasting styles, and handled both convincingly. The only interruption in that run was Oklahoma City, the team nobody is beating at the moment. Losing to the Thunder isn’t a blemish; it’s par for the league right now.

What separates this Dallas stretch from their early inconsistency is their defense. The Mavs have tightened rotations, limited second-chance opportunities, and drastically improved their shot discipline. Their offense looks more organized, more intentional, and more efficient. These aren’t cosmetic improvements — they’re foundational.

Brooklyn, on the other hand, has fooled no one. Their recent wins have come against soft opposition — New Orleans without rhythm, Charlotte with no identity, and a Chicago team currently in structural freefall. Nothing about those victories indicates a team ascending. The Nets remain one of the league’s weakest defensive units, regularly allowing opponents clean looks, comfortable possessions, and high-percentage opportunities. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Dallas team that is finally clicking.

Yet we get the Mavericks at a discounted price because their record still scares off the casual market. It shouldn’t. Dallas is rising. Brooklyn is static. The matchup edges point one way, and the number isn’t reflective of current form. Lay the points confidently.   

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