Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

San Antonio +9.5 over Oklahoma City (Neutral Site Game)

T-Mobile Arena – Las Vegas, NV

9:00 PM ET. Where do we even begin with this matchup? The defending champion Thunder are off to a historic start — 24–1 through their first 25 games, the best opening stretch in league history. They’ve been flattening teams, captivating headlines, and have become the consensus pick to not only win the entire tournament but repeat as champions. That’s the storyline, and the market loves a storyline. But backing a storyline means paying for it, and that’s where value is found with San Antonio.

Oklahoma City is phenomenal — no argument there — but when you have a team winning at this clip, oddsmakers have no choice but to inflate the price. The Thunder aren’t just laying points, they’re imposing a tax on pedigree, hype, and public fascination. That’s where overlays are born.

Meanwhile, San Antonio quietly enters this game as one of the league’s most improved clubs. Their path to the semifinals was characterized differently. The Spurs aren’t supposed to be here, their “stunning” upset win over the Lakers in Los Angeles in the quarterfinal speaks into this. But the victory alone shows that the Spurs are no pushover. However, San Antonio without Wemby won’t command attention like OKC.

That’s the key here. Oklahoma City looks inevitable, but San Antonio comes in playing free, loose, and with nothing to lose. Underdogs with that kind of psychological profile are always dangerous and with double-digit points in their pocket, all the more equitable. The Thunder may do Thunder things but the Spurs aren’t here by accident, and they aren’t stepping onto the floor intimidated. The value sits squarely with the underdog.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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