Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

PORTLAND -8.5 over Sacramento

Rose Garden at the Moda Center – Portland, OR

10:00 PM ET. At first glance, this number invites hesitation — and that’s exactly why it exists. Sacramento has quietly become a trendy underdog, largely because Portland’s defensive numbers don’t inspire confidence. Add in a couple of eye-catching road wins at Denver and Houston in the last month, and the casual bettor sees points plus opportunity. That perception is doing the heavy lifting here — not reality.

The truth is Sacramento is still a disaster away from home. A 3–12 road record isn’t a coincidence; it’s a reflection of a team that struggles to generate consistent offense outside of friendly confines. That weakness becomes magnified in Portland, one of the league’s more underrated home environments. The Blazers traditionally elevate their intensity in Rip City, feeding off the crowd and playing with far more purpose than they do on the road. Sacramento, meanwhile, has routinely failed to translate its scoring profile into hostile gyms, yes we know they beat the Rockets and Nuggets but chances are they were by taken lightly. The Blazers won’t offer such gratuities. And the Kings have never fared well particularly against teams that are willing to push pace and force uncomfortable possessions.

What’s also most telling is the number itself. This is the largest spread Portland has laid in recent memory, and books don’t take that stance lightly. If oddsmakers truly feared Sacramento’s capability, this line would sit several points lower to manage liability. Instead, they’re firmly planted behind the Blazers, effectively inviting bettors to grab the Kings and the points. That’s rarely an accident.

Those recent Sacramento road upsets we mentioned are also baked into the price. Nevertheless, they represent isolated peaks, not a trend. This is a classic case of the oddsmakers dangling bait: an appealing underdog with a flawed foundation versus a home favorite being quietly endorsed by the number. The Kings may look attractive on paper, but that’s exactly why they are the wrong side. Portland is in position to control this game from start to finish. We’ll play it that way.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v