Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Utah +135 over Indiana

7:00 PM EST This matchup sets up as a classic value opportunity created by record-based bias rather than true game context. Indiana’s poor season-long record and recent close loss have made them look more competitive than they actually are, while Utah’s extended losing streak has pushed the Jazz into an undervalued position in the market. The reality is that both teams are rebuilding, but Utah still carries the higher offensive ceiling and more reliable primary scoring option. When the line treats Indiana like a meaningful home-court favorite despite ongoing playmaking limitations and defensive inconsistencies, it opens the door to backing the more explosive team at a discounted price.

Utah’s recent losses are masking a key detail: their offensive profile still creates high-variance games, which is exactly what underdog bettors want. The Jazz play at a fast pace, take a high volume of threes, and rely on elite shot-making from Lauri Markkanen to stretch defenses that struggle to protect the perimeter. Indiana has been particularly vulnerable in those areas, especially without a true floor general to consistently control tempo. If Utah finds even league-average efficiency from beyond the arc, this game tilts quickly — and Indiana has shown throughout the season that it struggles to recover once opponents establish offensive rhythm.

From a betting standpoint, this isn’t about trusting Utah’s recent results — it’s about trusting the number. Indiana’s home record and effort level don’t justify being priced as the safer side, especially on the second night of a back-to-back where defensive execution often slips. Utah’s offense gives them a path to winning outright even if their defense remains shaky, and that upside is what creates value at plus money or near-even odds. In a game between two flawed teams, backing the one with the clearer scoring edge and lower market expectation is the sharper play. Utah to win outright is a value bet rooted in volatility, matchup edges, and price — not standings.

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