Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Indiana +9 -110 over Toronto

3 PM EST. The Raptors have had an inconsistent stretch recently, picking up only two wins in their last five games, which has kept them lingering around the middle of the Eastern Conference standings. Despite their fluctuating form, Toronto still brings a lot of firepower, especially with their fast-break offense leading the league at 19.2 points per game, largely driven by RJ Barrett’s ability to push the tempo. Toronto also has depth, with the likes of Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, and the veteran presence of Fred VanVleet. They have proven capable of putting together high-scoring stretches, but maintaining that consistency over longer periods remains a key challenge. Their defense has been average at best, and when they falter in that area, teams like the Pacers, despite their struggles, can stay in the game if they capitalize on mistakes.

The Pacers, on the other hand, are fighting through a tough season, sitting near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings with a 9-25 record against conference opponents. They’ve been especially porous defensively, allowing 118.4 points per game, which is among the worst in the league. However, Indiana’s offensive capability, particularly from beyond the arc, gives them a fighting chance. They lead the NBA in three-pointers made per game with 12.6, and if their perimeter shooters are on, they can keep games close. Even with Tyrese Haliburton out for the season, Indiana has had moments where their offense clicked, such as a tight road loss to the Milwaukee Bucks. While the Pacers are on a three-game losing streak, they’ve shown resilience in competitive games, and if their guards can find rhythm, they could surprise Toronto, especially if the Raptors’ defense doesn’t step up.

In terms of betting value, Indiana with the points seems like a strong play. The Pacers' ability to score from beyond the arc and keep games close, even when outmatched, makes them a solid candidate to cover a large spread. Toronto, while the more talented team, has had trouble with consistency, both offensively and defensively. The Raptors have won the last few matchups, but none of them have been blowouts, with games often being decided by single digits. This trend suggests that Indiana can hang around long enough to cover the spread, especially if they exploit Toronto’s lapses. Given the defensive struggles on both sides and the potential for a lower-scoring game, this could be a tightly contested affair where the Pacers manage to stay within reach of the Raptors, making the points the key factor in this match up!

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