Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Phoenix +7 -110 over Boston

9:00 PM EST The Boston Celtics just handled the Lakers by 22, shooting efficiently and controlling the glass, but that type of dominant performance often leads to market overreaction. Boston has been excellent defensively all season, allowing just 108.0 points per game (second in the league), yet they rank near the bottom in assists and don’t always generate easy offense in the half court. When laying a full seven points against a capable opponent, offensive consistency becomes critical — and that hasn’t always been Boston’s strength.

Phoenix, despite a rough outing against Portland in which they shot just 36.5% from the field, profiles as a team better suited to bounce back than spiral. The Suns still average 112.6 points per game on the season and get to the line at a strong rate, converting over 79% from the stripe. More importantly, they rank fifth in the NBA in points allowed per game (111.6), showing they can grind defensively when needed. Boston’s offense relies heavily on perimeter efficiency, and while the Celtics shoot a respectable percentage from deep, Phoenix holds opponents to just 34.4% from three-point range. That defensive discipline keeps opponents close,especially if the game slows into a half-court battle.

From a value standpoint, this spread feels more reflective of Boston’s reputation than the true separation between these teams. The Celtics are 37-19, but Phoenix sits at 33-25 — hardly a massive gap in overall quality. The Suns force 16.7 turnovers per game, which could disrupt Boston’s rhythm and create transition scoring opportunities. If Phoenix simply shoots closer to its season average and protects the ball better than it did last time out, this becomes a much tighter contest than the number suggests. In a matchup featuring two top-10 defenses and playoff-caliber rosters, grabbing seven points with the Suns is the sharper side.

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