Today's Free Picks for
Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Phoenix +5½ -110 over Charlotte
7:00 PM EST. Phoenix hasn’t been winning consistently during this recent skid—losing seven of their last 10—but the great equalizer makes them better than the market suggests. Even in the loss to Orlando, they erased a 16-point deficit and briefly took control late before going ice-cold in the final minutes. That’s not a team that’s outclassed—that’s a team struggling to finish. With a top-six scoring defense allowing just 111.1 points per game and the ability to force turnovers, the Suns bring a level of resistance that keeps them live in any game, especially when catching points.
Charlotte, meanwhile, just blew out Brooklyn, but zoom out and this is still a team that can be inconsistent offensively despite putting up 116.1 points per game on the season. They rely heavily on rhythm shooting, and against a Phoenix defense that limits assists (6th best in the league), that flow can get disrupted. The Hornets do defend well, but they don’t force turnovers at a high rate, which means Phoenix should be able to get into their sets and generate cleaner looks than they’ve been getting. And while Charlotte has been solid ATS overall, they’ve struggled in this exact spot—failing to cover eight of their last nine at home against Pacific Division teams off a win.
Taking the points jumps out, being 6-4 ATS. Phoenix has quietly been reliable as an underdog, especially in this range, and they’ve covered four straight against Charlotte following a loss. The situational trends line up, the defensive edge keeps them within striking distance, and the desperation factor is real for a team trying to stop the slide. You’re not asking Phoenix to dominate—you’re asking them to compete, and they’ve shown they can do that even when things aren’t clicking. Take the points and back the Suns to keep this one tight and well within the number.
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Our Pick
Phoenix +5½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)