Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Philadelphia +13 -110 over Boston

NBA Playoffs Series Game 1

1:00 PM EST. Philadelphia comes into this matchup in better form than the market is giving them credit for, and that matters when you’re dealing with a double-digit spread. Philly has quietly built momentum late in the season, winning eight of their last 13 and carrying that into the play-in with a convincing performance. More importantly, they still have enough offensive firepower to stay competitive, averaging nearly 116 points per game on the season. With multiple shot creators and the ability to score in stretches, this isn’t a team that typically gets blown out, even against elite competition.

The Celtics are the better team on paper, especially defensively, but their style doesn’t always translate to margin. They play at a controlled pace, take care of the basketball, and rely heavily on half-court efficiency rather than pushing tempo. That’s great for winning games, but it can make it difficult to separate by large numbers. Boston also ranks near the bottom of the league in free throw attempts, which limits easy scoring opportunities and reduces their ability to extend leads late. Even in wins, they’ve shown a tendency to let teams hang around longer than expected.

That dynamic is key here. Philadelphia doesn’t need to win—just stay within range—and the matchup history supports that outcome, with most recent meetings being tightly contested. The 76ers’ ability to generate offense and force turnovers gives them a path to keep this game competitive throughout, while Boston’s slower pace works in favor of the underdog. Add in the trend of the Celtics struggling to cover as playoff favorites, and this number looks a bit too inflated. Taking Philadelphia plus the points is the value side in a game that should stay closer than expected.

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