Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Atlanta +6 -110 over New York

NBA Playoffs Series Game 2

8:00 PM EST. The Hawks showed enough in Game 1 to suggest this series is tighter than the final score indicated. They matched New York for a half, moved the ball effectively, and still finished with solid efficiency despite the loss. Atlanta’s identity is built on pace and playmaking—they led the league in assists this season—and that style naturally keeps games competitive because it generates consistent scoring opportunities. Even when they hit a lull in the third quarter, they didn’t completely fall apart, which is important when evaluating their ability to stay within a number.

The Knicks played close to a best-case scenario in the opener, shooting efficiently from both the field and beyond the arc, yet still didn’t completely bury Atlanta until late. That’s a key point. The Knicks rely on shot-making and half-court execution, but they’re not a high-tempo team that creates separation easily. They also benefited from a significant edge at the free-throw line in Game 1, something that can fluctuate from game to game. If that normalizes even slightly, the margin becomes much harder to extend. 

This is about expected regression and game flow. Atlanta’s offensive volume—they rank near the top in both shot attempts and makes—gives them a built-in floor to stay competitive, while their ability to force turnovers can create extra possessions. The Knicks may control stretches again, but their slower pace and reliance on efficiency over volume works in favor of the underdog. Add in consistent trends of New York failing to cover after wins and Atlanta responding well in this role, and this sets up as a tighter contest than the spread suggests. Taking Atlanta plus the points is the play.

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