Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Minnesota +5 -110 over San Antonio

NBA Playoff Series Game 4

San Antonio leads series 2-1

7:30 PM EST.The Timberwolves were right there deep into Game 3 despite shooting under 39 percent from the field and getting almost nothing offensively from Julius Randle and Jaden McDaniels. That’s unlikely to happen again on their home floor where Minnesota has consistently played with more pace, more energy, and far better offensive rhythm throughout these playoffs. Anthony Edwards was sensational with 32 points, 14 rebounds, and six assists, and the biggest takeaway from the loss is that the Wolves still had every chance to steal the game despite playing one of their weaker offensive contests of the postseason.

The Timberwolves continue to create matchup problems for San Antonio because of their athleticism on the perimeter and ability to generate second-chance opportunities. Minnesota pulled down 15 offensive rebounds in Game 3 and finished with a massive edge in total boards, which is usually one of the strongest indicators of playoff bounce-back potential. The issue was shot-making, not effort. The Spurs also benefited from timely outside shooting and another monster late-game stretch from Victor Wembanyama, but expecting San Antonio to repeatedly survive while allowing Minnesota that many extra possessions feels dangerous. Defensively, the Timberwolves still rank among the league’s better teams at limiting efficient shooting and protecting the rim, and they’ve generally responded well after losses during this postseason run.

There’s no denying San Antonio has looked like the steadier team for most of the series, but playoff spreads often become inflated after a road favorite grabs momentum. Minnesota has already shown throughout these playoffs that it responds well under pressure, and the Wolves have quietly covered seven of their last eight playoff games at Target Center. Home underdogs with elite rebounding and defensive profiles tend to hold value this time of year because playoff games naturally tighten late. Even if San Antonio finds a way to escape with another win, Minnesota has the physicality and star power to keep this game within the number. Getting five points with a desperate home team led by Edwards is the side worth backing here.

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