Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Memphis +4½ -105 over Denver

8:00 PM EST. This line is a reputation price fighting a form price: Denver is 5-4, laying points on the road, against a Memphis team that is 7-3 with the better record, the better building and a plus 7 scoring margin, 117.9 scored against 110.8 allowed, while the Nuggets sit at 113.6 scored and 112.8 allowed, basically break even basketball. The market has made Memphis an underdog in 19 of its last 21 games, the Grizzlies keep cashing anyway at 6-3 against the spread, and at some point the books have to admit the start is real. Ty Jerome averaging over 32 a game across his last four at home is not a mirage either. Memphis is the better team right now by every measure that shows up in the standings, and it is catching points in its own gym.

The spot makes it worse for Denver. This is the Nuggets' third road game in five days, and it has been a travelling circus: stranded in Mexico City until 3 in the morning Saturday night after the Indiana game, a cancelled shootaround, then a Monday loss at Houston, 110-100, with the full lineup on the floor. Jokic went 25, 16 and 9 and Murray scored 38 in that game and Denver still lost by double digits, which tells you what the legs look like. Now they walk into FedExForum, a building where Denver has failed to cover 12 of its last 15 night games, to face a rested home team that plays fast and defends its floor. Road favourites on the third stop of a trip like that are exactly where good home dogs make their money.

The reason the line exists at all is Nikola Jokic, and it deserves a sentence. Memphis is thin at centre, with Quinten Post out, Isaiah Stewart questionable on a knee bone bruise, and Pippen Jr. and Saunders also sidelined, so Jokic could spend the night feasting on backups, and if he hangs a 35 point triple double the cover gets sweaty late. That is the whole Denver case, one all time great against a patchwork frontcourt. Everything else, the form, the travel, the building, the market's stubborn refusal to price Memphis like a 7-3 team, points the same way.

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