Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Buffalo +114 over Marshall

7:00 PM EST. Buffalo opens its season at Marshall tonight in the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge, and the Bulls arrive as a road underdog with a profile worth respecting. They finished 8-6 away from home last season, a winning road record for a mid-major, and under George Halcovage III they are 26-3 when leading with five minutes remaining. That is a team that travels well and closes games out, and the moneyline pays a premium for a group that has already shown it can walk into an unfamiliar gym, build a lead, and protect it down the stretch. The ceiling has changed as well, because Buffalo added a genuine headline talent this fall. J.J. Starling, a former five-star recruit and McDonald's All-American, was named a preseason MAC Player of the Year candidate and ran the show in the Bulls' exhibition win over Mercyhurst with 14 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists. He is now the most talented player on the floor, and Marshall's proven returning production amounts largely to one man: Noah Otshud, a capable guard who averaged 14.5 points and 3.4 assists last season, on a roster picked fifth in its own league. The underlying matchup also tilts toward the visitor. Marshall could score a year ago at 81.1 points per game, but it allowed 78.0, ranking 301st nationally in scoring defence. A vulnerable defence in a season opener, against a team that shot 47.3 percent last season and has just added a creator who draws defenders toward him, is a difficult starting point. There are reasons for caution. Marshall's home crowd is traditionally unforgiving toward November visitors, and Buffalo's own defence was nothing special either, allowing 76.2 points per game to rank 244th. This could easily become a shootout decided by home legs in the final four minutes, and it is opening night, with rebuilt rosters and all the sloppiness that entails. Starling's Buffalo career is also exactly one exhibition old. Even so, the profile fits a moneyline play: a road-tested team that closes games, the best player on the floor, and plus money against a home side whose defence was among the nation's most generous a year ago

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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Bowling Green +3½ -108 over Georgia St.

1:00 PM EST. Season openers are chaos merchants. Bowling Green visits Georgia State tonight to open the year in the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge.The programs' recent histories point the same way. Bowling Green went 18-14 last season and could actually score — 81.3 points a game on 47.6 percent shooting — while Georgia State staggered home 10-22, gave up 74.7 points a night (207th in the country), let opponents shoot 43.7 percent, and closed its season on a four-game losing skid. A defense that leaky doesn't get fixed by a calendar flip, and an offence built like Bowling Green's,  multiple shooters, pace, real efficiency — is exactly the profile that travels in November and hangs a number on a soft home defense. If this turns into the up-and-down game the 156.5 total is advertising, that favours the team with more ways to score, and that isn't the hosts.

The caveats, plainly, because opening night earns them. Last season's numbers are a weak guide in the portal era, both rosters have been rebuilt, neither team has played a real game, and chemistry in game one is a coin flip in both directions. Georgia State was also a different animal in its own building last year: 7-7 at home against 3-12 on the road, so the Convocation Center crowd and comfort are real parts of why they're favoured. Bowling Green has a scheduling wrinkle of its own, as well,  it flies home tonight and hosts Cleveland State tomorrow, back-to-back days to open the season, which can mean managed minutes if this one gets away early in either direction. And a 156.5 total means variance, a hot shooting night from the home team covers 3.5 in a hurry. Still a dog the models have winning outright, against a 10-win team with a bottom-third defence, catching a full possession and the hook's neighbour. That's the side. Take Bowling Green.

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