Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Alabama -105 over OKLAHOMA Gaylord Oklahoma Memorial Stadium – Norman, OK College Football Playoff – First Round

8:00 PM ET. No team has taken more heat recently than Alabama. Ever since the Crimson Tide were dismantled by Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, the narrative has been relentless. The loudest voices claim Alabama remained in the CFP on brand power alone, especially with Notre Dame left on the outside looking in and other teams sliding in the rankings after conference title losses while Alabama did not. Fair or not, animas is firmly against the Tide. That backdrop matters, because it directly influences everything here.

Despite all the noise, despite Alabama coming off a lopsided loss, and despite Oklahoma beating Alabama earlier this season in Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide are still favored—on the road, in Norman, in a playoff game. Not Oklahoma -1. Not even a pick’em. Alabama -1. That distinction is critical. The books are taking a position.

Yes, Oklahoma won the first meeting. But context matters. The Sooners needed a defensive touchdown, multiple Alabama turnovers, and a highly chaotic game script to escape with a narrow two-point win as a six-point underdog. That’s not a formula to go deep in the playoff. Variance played a massive role, and Alabama still had a chance to win despite consistently sabotaging itself.

Alabama’s flaws are obvious, but so is their ceiling. When the Tide protect the football and avoid gifting short fields, they are still one of the most physically imposing teams in the country. Oklahoma will get plenty of market support here. They’re the higher seed. They’re at home. They already beat Alabama weeks ago. And sentimentally, many bettors simply want Alabama to lose because of the bitter taste left in their mouth from the aforementioned committee Hijinx.

All of that however creates value on Alabama – which is rare considering they are widely classed as the gold standard of college football. Oddsmakers are well aware of the public’s appetite to back Oklahoma, and that’s the point. This isn’t about past results or public opinion—it’s about who the books trust when everything is stripped down. That would be the team from Tuscaloosa, not the hosts from Norman. We’ll follow their lead.

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