Posted Friday at 12:30pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 2

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, September 14

NY Giants +6 over Dallas

1:00 PM ET. Much like a bad karaoke singer, the betting market tends to get way too carried away after one decent performance. Dallas walked into Philadelphia last week as a 7-point underdog and nearly pulled off the upset. Credit where it’s due — the Cowboys looked solid, but let’s pump the brakes before we anoint them as NFC royalty. On the flip side, the Giants waddled into Washington as 6-point dogs and were so bad that even Commanders fans stopped booing for a quarter or two. So here we are: New York is now catching the exact same price in Dallas that they were in Washington. That’s not handicapping, that’s overreaction theater.

 

We’re talking about a 13-point swing in perception in just seven days. Dallas didn’t magically morph into the ’85 Bears overnight, and the Giants didn’t suddenly forfeit their NFL membership. This is what happens when oddsmakers hang a number, the public chases last week’s highlight reel, and everyone forgets that football is played over 17 weeks, not one. The Cowboys’ effort in Philly was commendable, but divisional dogs often step up in those spots. The Giants’ no-show in Washington? That’s exactly the type of clunker that inflates the line the very next week.

 

Now, let’s throw in some historical fluff to make this number look even bigger: Dallas has won eight straight meetings with the Giants. Naturally, the market eats that up like free nachos at happy hour. But just because the Cowboys have been the bully on the block doesn’t mean they suddenly deserve to lay nearly a touchdown in a divisional game after being a touchdown dog the week before. That’s perception, not reality. Trends don’t cash tickets; numbers do, and this number is bloated beyond recognition.

 

So what do we do? We hold our nose, ignore the laughter from our buddies, and back the ugly dog. The Giants look unplayable on paper, which is exactly why they’re playable on the field. Dallas is fine, but they’re not that fine. The overreaction machine is in full swing, and we’re happy to fade it. Remember: when a line looks too easy, it usually is — kind of like that one friend who insists he’s “great at poker” but always buys back in by the second level. Recommendation: NY Giants +6

 

Miami -1 over New England
1:00 PM ET. Nobody stunk out the joint like Miami in Week 1. They didn’t just lose, they got embarrassed, managing a grand total of 211 yards in a 33-8 defeat at Indianapolis. Tua looked rattled, turnovers piled up, and the Dolphins didn’t find the end zone until garbage time. If you bet Miami, you could’ve ripped your ticket up five minutes into the game and spared yourself the migraine. It was that ugly. Naturally, the market isn’t racing to get back on the Dolphins after that debacle. But here’s the thing: last week Miami was a 1-point favorite on the road in Indianapolis, and now they’re laying only a single point at home against New England. How does that compute? It doesn’t. That’s a straight-up market overreaction based solely on one Sunday of horror football.

 

Head coach Mike McDaniel is going to have his guys chained to the film room this week like it’s a scene out of A Clockwork Orange. Forget 60 minutes of tape — we’re talking 180 minutes a day, pounding into their heads how bad they looked, how embarrassed they should be, and how quickly jobs can vanish in this league. Even the talking heads on ESPN are calling for McDaniel’s head after one lousy game. That’s the media echo chamber for you — they’ll bury you on Monday and pretend they loved you all along two weeks later.

 

Remember Notre Dame last year? They lost to Northern Illinois in Week 1, and everyone buried them alive. Fast forward, and the Irish were playing for the championship. One week doesn’t make a season. We’re not saying Miami is going to the Super Bowl because they got pantsed in Indy, but let’s not pretend they suddenly forgot how to play football. There’s a reason oddsmakers had them favored on the road last week, and that reason hasn’t disappeared into thin air.

 

This is an absolute steal of a price on a proud team that’s going to punch back. McDaniel’s Dolphins are tailor-made for a big rebound spot, and the Patriots are being priced here like they’re still being coached by peak Belichick instead of… whatever that is now. The number is a gift, the market is rattled, and Miami’s about to remind everyone that football seasons are marathons, not sprints. Buy low on the Fish.

Recommendation: Miami -1

 

Cincinnati -3½ over Jacksonville

1:00 PM ET. This line opened with Cincinnati -5½ before being bet down to -3½, and that’s where the value reveals itself. The market saw the Bengals nearly cough one up against Cleveland and it saw Jacksonville cruise past Carolina. That’s enough for the number to get shaved, but it’s a knee-jerk adjustment that ignores context.

 

The Bengals almost laid another Week 1 egg, something this team has made a bad habit of under Zac Taylor, going 2-9 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2 since Joe Burrow arrived. The Bengals have historically started slow, so a one-point win over Cleveland isn’t exactly shocking. The key, though, is that Cincinnati’s defense slammed the door after halftime, forcing two picks and shutting out the Browns over their final six drives. That’s a wake-up call performance, not a red flag.

 

Jacksonville, meanwhile, is getting too much credit for beating up a Carolina team that might be the league’s softest touch. The Jags forced three turnovers but only found the end zone twice, committed 11 penalties, and Trevor Lawrence still gave the ball away. You can get away with sloppy execution against the Panthers. You don’t get away with it in Cincinnati against a defense that creates pressure and capitalizes on mistakes.

 

Joe Burrow didn’t look sharp last week — 113 yards through the air is his lowest full-game output in years. But Burrow doesn’t stay in neutral for long, especially with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins ready to torch a Jacksonville secondary that wasn’t exactly tested by Bryce Young. The Jags looked dominant on paper, but that was against a rookie QB behind one of the league’s worst O-lines. That isn’t a barometer for success on the road in this spot.

 

This is less about falling in love with Cincinnati and more about fading the inflation around Jacksonville. The Jags are being priced as if they’ve “arrived” after beating Carolina. We’ll wait until Trevor Lawrence strings together a clean game before we buy that stock. Recommendation: Cincinnati -3½

 

San Francisco -3 over New Orleans

1:00 PM ET. The story being pushed is that the 49ers are in trouble without Brock Purdy. That’s the hook the market ran with when Purdy was announced as doubtful. San Francisco went from a -7-point choice to -3-point chalk, and now we’re being invited to fade them because they’re starting Mac Jones instead of Purdy. You can buy that narrative if you want, but we’re not interested.

 

Mac Jones isn’t some rookie project. He’s got 40+ NFL starts under his belt, has played in playoff games, and now he inherits an offense built around Christian McCaffrey. San Fran doesn’t need him to be a hero. They need him to hit open receivers and hand the ball to the best dual-threat back in football. Kyle Shanahan has made a living squeezing production out of quarterbacks far less capable than Jones, and the drop-off from Purdy to Jones is nothing close to what the oddsmakers want you to think.

 

Meanwhile, New Orleans looked “competent” against Tampa Bay, and apparently that’s enough to convince the market they can hang with San Francisco. Let’s slow down. The Saints had 13 penalties for 89 yards, went 1-for-4 in the red zone, and their quarterback, Spencer Rattler, looked exactly like a rookie pressed into the No. 1 role too soon. They’ve now lost 38 of their last 62 home games against the number since 2018, the second-worst ATS home mark in the entire NFL. Being “competent” against the Bucs doesn’t mean you’re ready for a defense loaded with Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and a secondary that feasts on mistakes.

 

The market is reacting to names and headlines — Purdy’s injury, Kittle’s absence, a kicker change — but what matters is the trenches. San Fran still owns the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and New Orleans still looks like a team that beats itself before the opponent needs to. If the 49ers’ defense can limit Seattle in their own building, what exactly are the Saints going to do with penalties, missed blocks, and a shaky Spencer Rattler QB trying to out-duel Shanahan’s scheme? Hard pass. Recommendation: San Francisco -3

 

Tennessee +5½ over Los Angeles Rams

1:00 PM ET. The Rams are being priced like they just knocked off the ‘85 Bears when in reality, they beat Houston 14-9 in a game that set football back 20 years. Matthew Stafford dinked and dunked his way to 245 empty yards, Davante Adams looked like a guy cashing one last paycheck, and the whole offense sputtered until Puka Nacua bailed them out. That’s not a statement win — that’s a warning sign.

 

The narrative on Tennessee is that they’re a trainwreck. The market saw Cam Ward’s debut in Denver, a box score littered with drops, sacks, and penalties, and decided the Titans are the same 3-14 tire fire from last year. That’s the overreaction we hunt. Ward was sacked six times, yes, but he also had eight passes clank off his receivers’ hands, and still managed to audible his way into better looks against the league’s toughest defense. That’s not a kid drowning, that’s a kid swimming without a lifeguard in the deep end.

 

Tennessee’s defense is legit. They forced four turnovers in Denver but more important than that - they went after the quarterback to force those mistakes. That alone keeps them live in every game, especially against a Rams’ O-line that might be missing both starting guards. You want to lay road points with a banged-up line protecting a creaky QB who takes hits like it’s his full-time job? That’s not value, that’s a leap of faith. Recommendation: Tennessee +5½

 

Chicago +5½ over Detroit

1:00 PM ET. The entire football world just watched Chicago implode on Monday night. Up double digits in the fourth quarter, the Bears managed to turn what looked like a statement road win into a choke job of the highest order. That collapse wasn’t just bad; it was embarrassing, and the market has pounced on it. Which is exactly why we’re interested.

 

Detroit, meanwhile, gets priced like they’re still the darlings of last year’s hype machine. The Lions are being treated as if they’re automatic at home — as if Ford Field is Arrowhead or Lambeau. It’s not and now the Lions are spotting nearly a major against a Bears squad that outplayed Minnesota for 45 minutes? That’s not value. That’s a market inefficiency.

 

Caleb Williams looked like a rookie in crunch time, but there were flashes in that game where he looked like he could be the guy. Chicago moved the ball with ease, converted on third downs, and dictated tempo before the roof caved in. Those positives get buried under the narrative of “Bears blow it again,” but in this market, perception always outweighs reality. We’ll gladly scoop up the inflated points that come with it.

 

The reaction in Chicago was predictable. Bears fans and the Twitter-verse turned on Williams within minutes of the meltdown. The pitchforks were out for the sophomore QB, the head coach, and the offensive coordinator as if one brutal fourth quarter defines the season. That’s the beauty of recency bias: the public sees dysfunction, we see overreaction and opportunity. Recommendation: Chicago +5½

 

New York Jets +6 over Buffalo

1:00 PM ET. The Jets have got warts, no question, but you’re going to give us +6 with a defense that can hang and a quarterback who finally looks like he belongs? We’re in. Justin Fields is still priced like the broken kid the Bears chewed up and spat out. He’s not that guy anymore. Against Pittsburgh, he looked comfortable, he looked sharp, and he looked like a quarterback who has a bona fide No. 1 in Garrett Wilson. That connection is going to be a problem for defenses all year.

 

As for the Jets’ defense, yeah, they were embarrassed. Aaron Rodgers lit them up for four majors last week and you could feel the pitchforks coming out on social media. That group has too much talent and too much pride to roll over again. This is a defense that flies to the ball, creates turnovers, and usually punches above its weight. Getting embarrassed like that in Week 1 is the kind of thing that wakes a unit up in a hurry.

 

On the other side, what do we even say about Buffalo anymore? The defense is a sieve. They just coughed up 40 at home to Baltimore and the only reason anyone’s talking about them in a positive light is because Josh Allen pulled another rabbit out of his hat. Same story, different year. It’s Allen or bust. That isn’t a recipe for sustained success, but the market continues to price the Bills like they’re the class of the AFC.

 

The Jets ran for 182 yards last week. Breece Hall was gashing Pittsburgh, Fields was extending plays, and they controlled the line of scrimmage. Lamar Jackson gave Buffalo’s defense fits, what, the Jets can't follow that templete? This is not a mismatch. It’s inflated points on an overvalued team against a live dog. We’ll gladly step in. Recommendation: NY Jets +6

 

Seattle +3 over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM ET. The Seahawks opened the season with a frustrating 49ers loss, but there’s plenty of upside here. Seattle’s defense picked off Brock Purdy twice and limited San Francisco to two touchdowns — they just couldn’t get the offense going. Against Pittsburgh, that formula is likely to work in their favor, especially with the Steelers’ “upgraded” roster showing cracks in Week 1.

 

Aaron Rodgers had a big debut, completing 22 of 30 passes for 244 yards and four touchdowns against the Jets. Impressive? Sure. But one good game doesn’t make the Steelers elite. The Jets are a mess offensively, and Rodgers’ performance was buoyed by defensive mistakes. Pittsburgh’s offense has yet to prove it can consistently move the ball, and their offensive line showed vulnerability early. Sam Darnold and the Seahawks’ offensive weapons have a chance to exploit those holes.

 

Defensively, the Steelers are far from dominant. They allowed Breece Hall to look like a star and struggled to generate pressure when it mattered. Jalen Ramsey may add a splash of nastiness, but he alone won’t carry Pittsburgh. Seattle’s versatile attack and opportunistic secondary are well-positioned to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s flaws. Recommendation: Seattle +3

 

Baltimore -11½ over Cleveland

1:00 PM ET. The market wants you to believe this number is too high. Division game, inflated spread, Joe Flacco revenge angle — it all sounds neat on paper. Reality check: the Ravens just dropped 41 points on Buffalo and looked like they were playing 7-on-7 until two fluke turnovers in the final two minutes turned that showcase into a loss. If you think one late collapse erases what we saw for the other 58 minutes, you’re betting the logo, not the football.

 

Cleveland’s defense held Burrow to 113 yards last week, but that was Cincinnati in Week 1, not Lamar Jackson in full flight with Derrick Henry behind him. The Browns’ defensive front is good, but they’re still prone to giving up chunk runs and Jackson has historically carved them up when he gets to the edge. Baltimore’s offense is balanced and relentless, and this is not the week to expect Flacco to keep pace.

 

Speaking of Flacco, he threw for 294 yards in the opener, which looks decent until you watch the tape. Most of it came underneath with Cincinnati sitting back in prevent mode. That won’t fly against a Ravens defense that blitzes from every angle and disguises coverages better than anyone. Old Joe’s not escaping pressure the way he used to — this feels like a game where the clock on his feel-good story starts ticking down.

 

Baltimore didn’t spend all offseason loading up just to mess around in spots like this. The Ravens win games like this going away because their ceiling is Super Bowl and Cleveland’s ceiling is “keep it close.” Asking them to hang inside this number is asking a lot, especially with Flacco behind a leaky line in a hostile environment. This is one-way traffic. Recommendation: Baltimore-11½ 

 

Carolina +6½ over Arizona

4:05 PM ET. Arizona is fresh off a Week 1 win over New Orleans, which looks good in the standings but not so much on film. The Cardinals got bailed out by their secondary while the offense sputtered and tripped over itself for most of the afternoon. The market, however, doesn’t care about “how” — it only sees a 1-0 team laying less than a touchdown at home to Carolina. That’s a dangerous assumption.

 

Bryce Young was bad against Jacksonville. Two picks, a lost fumble, and a 51% completion rate. He looked rattled, he looked small, and he looked like a guy trying to do too much with too little help. That’s all true. What’s also true is that no market in the world punishes a rookie quarterback more harshly than this one does after a clunker. Young is being priced as if he’s incapable of stringing together a competent drive, which simply isn’t the case.

 

Carolina’s defense had its issues against the Jags, particularly against the run, but this is not Jacksonville. Arizona doesn’t have Travis Etienne, and their offensive line is held together by duct tape. Kyler Murray looked rusty in Week 1, and that’s a problem when you’re being asked to spot more than a field goal with a team that struggles to finish drives.

 

What we have here is the definition of inflated points. Arizona wins ugly, Carolina loses ugly, and the line balloons to nearly a converted touchdown. That’s where the value lies. Recommendation: Carolina +6½

 

Indianapolis +2 over Denver

4:05 PM ET. Why exactly is Denver road chalk in this spot? This is a Broncos team that coughed it up four times last week, hasn’t fielded a competent offense in years, and is still trying to convince itself that defense alone pays the bills in the modern NFL. Yes, they smothered Tennessee, but that was Will Levis and a broken Titans unit — not exactly a feat worth parading around.

 

Indianapolis might be flawed, but let’s not confuse them with the '76 Bucs. Daniel Jones’ box score against Miami looked pristine, with the Colts scoring on every possession, and while some of that was Miami’s defensive incompetence, Indy still executed. They protected the football, moved the chains, and gave their defense the breathing room to do its job. That matters.

 

Denver’s defense is legit, no denying that. The reigning DPOY is an anchor, and they’ll win games with that side of the ball. But when you’re laying road points in the NFL, your offense has to back it up. The Broncos don’t. Their offensive line is shaky, their quarterback play is middling, and unless their defense scores, they’re grinding to get to 20. Laying points on the road with that profile is the kind of trap the market loves to set.

 

The Colts’ defense, meanwhile, just held Miami to 211 yards and eight points, and they forced two picks on top of it. Their secondary looks sharper, and the defensive front still has teeth. If anything, Indy matches up better here than they did last week. Recommendation: Indianapolis +2

 

Kansas City +1 over Philadelphia

4:25 PM ET. The market has a short memory. Philadelphia survived Dallas at home last week in a weather-delayed rock fight, and the narrative is that they “handled business.” Meanwhile, Kansas City is being downgraded for losing a showcase game in Brazil against a division rival. Put that all in a blender, and somehow the Chiefs are a home underdog in September. That’s not just rare — it’s almost sacrilegious.

 

Kansas City didn’t look sharp against the Chargers. The pass rush was non-existent, the secondary got lit up, and Patrick Mahomes looked human behind a line that couldn’t hold. Still, this is Andy Reid, extra prep time, and Arrowhead at night. The market is quick to bury the Chiefs, but it’s not like Philly looked like world-beaters either. They coughed up 20 first-half points to Dak Prescott before a lightning delay froze both offenses. Strip away the optics, and their defense still has cracks.

 

That Philly stop unit is not the same one that won a Super Bowl ring. They lost key depth in the pass rush and their best playmaker in the secondary. Now Jalen Carter might miss time, which would leave a big hole in the middle. That matters when you’re trying to contain Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and whatever gadget Andy Reid draws up. KC’s receiving corps may lack a true WR1 right now, but Mahomes makes average guys look dangerous, and one week of struggles doesn’t erase seven years of proof. Recommendation: Kansas City +1

 

Minnesota -4½ over Atlanta

8:20 PM ET. What we have here is a market reacting to what it saw Monday night. Minnesota looked like garbage for 45 minutes, with rookie J.J. McCarthy swimming in the deep end and the offense dead on arrival. Then the fourth quarter hit. The Vikings ripped off 21 points, flipped a loss into a win, and showed us the outline of why this staff was willing to ride with the kid. One ugly stretch doesn’t erase the ceiling.

 

The market, however, loves Atlanta’s “moral victory” over Tampa Bay. The Falcons outgained the Bucs, moved the chains, and Michael Penix looked polished. That’s fine. The problem is that Tampa Bay was every bit as disjointed as Minnesota was early Monday night, only the Bucs never found another gear. Atlanta took advantage, yet still couldn’t close. This is the same group that couldn’t generate a pass rush last year and is still leaning on a bunch of names that didn’t get home then and aren’t getting home now.

 

Minnesota’s defense is the differentiator here. Brian Flores dials up pressure like he’s allergic to vanilla, and that chaos is exactly what disrupts a rookie quarterback. Penix may have looked comfortable in Week 1, but the Buccaneers’ front is a different animal than what he’ll see here. McCarthy, meanwhile, is getting better reps by the day. His “breakout” came with some help from flags, yes, but there was also command, decisiveness, and a little swagger. He doesn’t have to be brilliant — he just has to play on schedule while the defense does the heavy lifting.

 

Atlanta is going to get hyped because they looked functional in a division that barely qualifies as professional football. Minnesota is going to get discounted because the cameras caught their worst three quarters of the year on primetime and most of the market went to bed before they Vikes woke up. That’s the recipe for deflated points. Recommendation: Minnesota -4½