Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Atlanta +6.5 over Seattle

1:00 PM ET. Seattle’s defense is getting crowned like it’s the Legion of Boom 2.0 because they shut out a rookie making his second career start while throwing four hospital balls into traffic. Now the market wants to sell the Falcons low because Kirk Cousins has been trying to operate an NFL passing game without his WR1. If Drake London is back — and all signs point in that direction — Atlanta’s offense gets a very different complexion. Cousins is not Brosmer, this is not Minnesota’s offensive line, and this is not a repeat of last year’s 34-14 misleading final where a defensive score stretched the margin beyond what the box score reflected. Seattle’s run defense may be elite on paper, but that forces Cousins into the exact game script where he thrives — throwing in rhythm, pushing intermediate windows, and hunting mismatches.

Atlanta is catching almost a converted touchdown because the market is intoxicated with Seattle’s defensive metrics, but metrics rarely tell you who they were built against. The Seahawks haven’t allowed a big rushing day because they simply haven’t played many teams that can run the football. Atlanta can — and more importantly — Atlanta will continue to try, even if it’s not yielding fireworks early. Sustained drives shorten games, and shortening games favors the underdog with the more stable QB situation right now. Seattle’s offense has become a weekly coin flip, and laying this kind of lumber with inconsistency is asking for trouble. Falcons are not just live; they’re undervalued in a matchup where the margin projects much thinner than the number suggests.

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