Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Washington -1 over Minnesota

1:00 PM ET. The Commanders have become the punchline for every “find a way to lose” montage, but last week’s overtime result against Denver had nothing fraudulent about it. Washington piled up 30 first downs, controlled the line of scrimmage, sustained drives and still came away with nothing to show because they misfired in the red zone and then came up inches short on a two-point conversion. That is not a schematic failure — that’s variance. Washington is moving the football with stability, and if Jayden Daniels returns, the ceiling of this offense instantly elevates. Even if he doesn’t, this is a coaching staff that at least has shown an ability to generate rhythm and chain-moving efficiency with whoever is under center. Seven straight losses brings an ugly narrative, but the on-field product hasn’t matched the headline.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is being priced like a team simply waiting for its luck to turn. That’s not what the tape says. The Vikings have averaged 10.5 points per game over their four-game slide, and asking the defense to bail out the offense every week is a recipe for erosion. The dam eventually breaks when a stop is required every single possession, and it looked very close to breaking last week with Seattle picking them apart once they forced a one-dimensional script. J.J. McCarthy returning from concussion protocol is not a magic potion — he’d be stepping back behind the same injured pass-protection unit with the same limited margin for error. Washington showed signs of life and physicality against Denver; Minnesota showed more signs of a team simply running on fumes. If that same version of the Commanders shows up, they should walk off the field finally holding a win instead of another “almost.”

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