Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New Orleans +8 Tampa Bay

1:00 PM ET. Tampa Bay is being priced like a reliable favorite, but nothing about their recent form supports that status. The Bucs have failed to cover four straight, and the lone ticket they have cashed since mid-October came against this same Saints team in a game that was far more about New Orleans’ instability than Tampa’s dominance. That late-October meeting saw Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough splitting snaps — a rookie carousel that offered the Bucs the luxury of preparing for chaos rather than a focused gameplan. Tampa walked out with a 23-3 win, but context matters: short fields, stalled drives, and a rookie quarterback room trying to survive rather than dictate terms. Now the market asks Tampa to lay the largest number they’ve been asked to eat all season with recent results that don’t justify it. That’s inflation, not respect.

New Orleans enters as a flawed team but a quietly undervalued one. Last week’s 21-17 final against Miami looks competitive on paper, and while the Saints’ late touchdown made that scoreline more flattering than the gameplay suggested, the larger trend cannot be ignored: the under is 7-0-1 in the Saints’ last eight, meaning every possession, every drive, and every point is magnified. This Saints defense keeps games within reach, and catching more than a full touchdown in a low-variance profile is the position we want. Tampa Bay may have snapped its losing streak, but asking them to win comfortably is a significantly different ask. Until they prove they can separate, spotting this many points becomes a bridge we’re not willing to cross. Saints +8 or pass.

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