Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Tennessee +165 Cleveland

1:00 PM ET. There is no universe in which we are eager to lay chalk with a rookie quarterback making his third start in a game totaled in the mid-30s. When the market tells you points will be a scarce commodity and then asks the favorite to separate, the alarm bells should be going off like the fire code is being violated. Cleveland is coming off a loss that looks worse on the scoreboard than it did on the field, but zero-for-four on fourth down and a -2 turnover margin weren’t “unlucky”—they were the byproduct of a young quarterback pressing against a playoff defense. Shedeur Sanders will get better, perhaps much better, but projecting linear growth in a low-possession slog is where bettors torch bankrolls. These are the exact spots where variance reigns, and suddenly every missed kick, field-position swing, or tipped-ball turnover holds disproportionate weight. In a game where 17 may win it, spotting more than a field goal is pricing a level of control that Cleveland has not earned.

Enter Tennessee, whom the market has seemingly relegated to football purgatory after seven straight losses and a home effort last week that barely qualified as aerobic exercise. We get it — the Titans haven’t inspired anything except remote-control usage — but this price is based far more on perception than form. This is the Titans’ first road game in a month and a half, and teams often benefit from getting out of their own stadium when the walls start closing in. The offense still has a pulse on early downs, and the Browns’ defense is no longer catching anyone by surprise, especially without the hidden value of low expectations. This total invites tight quarters, field goals over touchdowns, and one break deciding the outcome. Titans outright is our call.

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