Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Green Bay -6.5 over Chicago

4:25 PM ET. Chicago has become the sentimental “buy-low” darling of the market, but sentiment doesn’t move the chains and it certainly doesn’t block edge rushers. The Bears have made their living skating on thin ice—one-score escapes, miracle finishes, and fourth-quarter theatrics that cover up 45 minutes of offensive purgatory. Now they walk into Lambeau with the very real possibility that their inflated résumé finally meets a team that doesn’t hand out second chances like Halloween candy. Green Bay’s defense is built to expose smoke-and-mirror offenses: disciplined rush lanes, physical corners, and a front that forces quarterbacks to read the field instead of wing it to their first instinct. The Packers have spent the better part of November tightening screws, not loosening them. Chicago is being priced like the adorable underdog; Green Bay is priced like the adult in the room.

We’ve watched the Bears sidestep landmines for a month and survive games they had no business winning, which the market has mistaken for “turning a corner.” That road ends here. Green Bay has quietly gotten healthier, faster, and more multiple on both sides of the ball, and unlike Chicago, they’re not being graded on effort. The Packers exhaust opponents by the second half because they stack drives—not prayer sessions—and Chicago’s red-zone defense has been living on tipped passes and favorable spots rather than sustainable execution. We acknowledge the rivalry history and the scraps these two have played, but narratives won’t help when Lambeau gets loud, the pass rush gets home, and Chicago is forced out of its comfort zone. The number looks high only if you’re still believing the Bears’ recent run is repeatable. We don’t. Swallow the points.

Take advantage of BET365's early MLB payout offer! 

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 5 runs ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 5 runs ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

v