Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Las Vegas +8½ Denver

4:05 PM ET. We get it. On paper, this screams Denver. The Broncos just beat this same Raiders team 10-7 a few weeks ago while holding Las Vegas to a pulse-stopping 3.2 yards per play and bullying Geno Smith into six sacks. Vegas has dropped six in a row. They’re averaging fewer touchdowns per game than some teams’ kickers. The O-line is beat up, the receiving corps is duct tape and prayers, and the box scores look like they’ve been redacted for national security reasons. All valid points — and yet the market’s reaction to all of this has crossed into a different territory. Browsing through the numbers, you’d think Denver was rolling into this matchup throwing haymakers with a top-10 offense and clean sheet football. They aren’t. The Broncos have lived week-to-week on razor-thin margins and are being priced as though they’re capable of blowing teams out by accident. Their offense still needs a map, a compass, and a sherpa to reach 20 points. That matters when you’re being asked to lay more than a touchdown on the road.

The Raiders are a wreck, no argument, but wrecks don’t stay fully engulfed forever. When the market treats a struggling team like they’ve already mathematically stopped showing up, you get into value territory quickly. Eight points in a divisional rematch with two conservative offenses and two coaches terrified of losing beats any résumé Denver brings to the table. The crowd in Vegas might be 70% Broncos fans — fine — noise doesn’t block Maxx Crosby, who can single-handedly stall drives and shrink spreads. Denver’s path to covering requires efficiency, red-zone execution, and tempo — three things they haven’t consistently displayed. This one has slog and variance written all over it, and games that look like 16-13 finals make +8 awfully attractive. The points are the play.

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