Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Baltimore -5.5 over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM ET. The market fell for it — hook, line, and Jackson on Turkey Day. The warning signs flashing in bright neon for the last month and Baltimore punished that optimism with five turnovers, three sacks allowed, and a game script that looked like a self-sabotage clinic. The defense did everything required and then some, holding Cincinnati to 1-for-6 in the red zone while being stuck on the field for nearly 39 minutes due to short fields and offensive malpractice. That’s not a schematic failure — that’s a team tripping over its own shoelaces in high definition. If the Ravens simply play clean football — not even dynamic, just clean — they win that game comfortably. This line clearly anticipates that Baltimore regression toward competence, and we’re inclined to agree the market correction comes here.

The under has been the reliable friend in this rivalry — nine of the last ten staying beneath the number with an average score that barely clears crumbs at 34.1 total points. The Steelers haven’t topped 20 in any of those matchups, and the lone recent over comes tied to a game not led by their current quarterback. Pittsburgh has depended on its defense to carry the full load, and eventually those units get stretched to the point of fracture when the offense continues to deliver three-and-outs and field-position disasters. Both teams trend low, both teams trend tight, but Baltimore’s ability to finish drives and protect the football is the separating factor. If the Ravens stop handing out turnovers like Thanksgiving leftovers, they should distance themselves here.

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