Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Lamar Jackson Anytime TD +280

1:00 PM ET. We’ll bite on Lamar Jackson anytime touchdown +280, because this price is inflated based more on recency bias than probability. Baltimore’s red-zone struggles last week were self-inflicted — turnovers, penalties, and short circuits — but the underlying takeaway was that the ball kept finding its way into Lamar’s hands inside the 10. Designed QB runs have quietly crept back into Baltimore’s play-calling, especially in high-leverage downs, and with the offense under heavy criticism this week, the most predictable adjustment is the simplest: put the ball in your best athlete’s hands and let him solve the problem.

Pittsburgh’s defense lives off aggression and edge pressure, which creates lanes when containment gets too hungry. They’re elite against conventional red-zone rushing looks, but the one area they’re susceptible is when QBs break structure and force linebackers to declare late. With Baltimore expected to shorten the playbook and lean on execution over fireworks, Lamar-as-a-runner becomes the logical solution near the goal line rather than forcing tight-window throws into a defense begging for them. At +280, we are buying a number shaded too heavily by last week’s ugly box score — not the opportunity that continues to present itself. Anytime TD: Lamar Jackson +280.

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