Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Caleb Williams under 195½ Passing Yards

4:25 PM ET. The market is still hanging numbers on Caleb Williams based on ceiling and draft pedigree rather than the identity Chicago has leaned into. The Bears are winning games by shortening them — run volume, clock control, and low-risk decision-making — not by turning Williams loose to chase stat lines. Chicago ranks near the bottom of the league in pass attempts per game during this run, and that philosophy isn’t suddenly shifting on the road against a Green Bay defense built to punish impatience. The Bears’ offensive formula is simple: protect the ball, stay ahead of the chains, lean on the ground game, and trust the defense to tilt the field. That does not lend itself to inflated passing totals cashing overs.

Green Bay’s pass defense remains one of the league’s most efficient units on a yards-per-attempt basis, and the matchup becomes even more restrictive with Chicago thin at wide receiver. With Rome Odunze ruled out and Chicago already leaning run-heavy in neutral game scripts, this feels like a number shaded too high by default rather than matchup. If Chicago is staying competitive, it will be on the ground. If they’re trailing late, this defense can turn predictable dropbacks into negative plays quickly. Game plan and opponent both point to the same outcome.

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