Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Kirk Cousins over 200½ Passing Yards

1:00 PM ET. Atlanta isn’t beating Seattle on the ground. Full stop. The Seahawks are No. 2 in the league against the run and No. 3 in scoring defense for one reason — they force teams to abandon balance and throw into predictable downs. With Drake London sidelined again and the Falcons as home underdogs, this game script strongly projects Cousins into volume by necessity, not choice. Morris may prefer a conservative approach, but a bottom-five team chasing its season isn’t going to get to play on its terms. Cousins has thrown for 433 yards since stepping in, and unlike the rookie he’s replacing, he will take what the defense gives rather than waiting for the perfect look that never develops.

Cousins clearing this number isn’t about explosive upside — it’s about math. Atlanta’s defense isn’t forcing short fields, so Cousins is inheriting longer drives and more snaps in trailing scripts. Seattle is coming off a 26-0 shutout, which only inflates perception further and gifts us a deflated number. Cousins has looked comfortable in structure, he’s protecting the football, and he’s getting enough intermediate windows to stack completions. If Atlanta falls behind — and the market says they will — the pass attempts will climb whether they want them to or not. Over 200.5 is live on volume alone.

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