Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

NY Jets +14 over Jacksonville

1:00 PM ET. This is the exact type of number that screams inflation. Jacksonville is playing its best football of the season, Trevor Lawrence is clean again, and the market is pricing the Jaguars like a team that’s about to roll everyone in sight. That’s how you end up laying two touchdowns against a defense-first, slow-tempo opponent. Yes, the Jets are a mess offensively and yes, Brady Cook is making his first NFL start, but this number isn’t asking New York to be good — it’s asking them not to completely collapse. Jacksonville has won four straight, but none of those wins required blowing the doors off an opponent from start to finish. When favorites get priced on vibes instead of margins, we pay attention.

New York still has a few things working quietly in its favor. The defense hasn’t generated interceptions, but it has limited explosive plays and kept games from spiraling. The Jets also lead the league in return touchdowns, and special teams volatility matters when you’re catching this many points. Breece Hall being available — even at less than 100 percent — gives the Jets at least a functional offensive foundation, and Aaron Glenn’s approach has clearly shifted toward shortening games and surviving. Jacksonville doesn’t need style points here, just a win, and that often leads to conservative second halves. This is a classic big number, wrong opponent spot. Jets or nothing.

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