Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Las Vegsa +12.5 over Philadelphia

1:00 PM ET. This number is doing a lot of heavy lifting for a Philadelphia team that is clearly wobbling. Three straight losses, nine turnovers over that stretch, and a quarterback coming off a four-interception night is not the profile of a team that should be laying nearly two touchdowns against anyone. The Eagles are still being priced on reputation, not current form. Since their 8-2 start, the execution has slipped, the margin for error has vanished, and now they’re dealing with key injuries up front on both sides of the ball. Add in cold weather and potential snow, and this has all the makings of a low-variance, grind-it-out game where margins matter more than talent gaps.

Las Vegas is bad, no one is disputing that, but bad teams can still cash big numbers when the favorite isn’t clean. The Raiders have quietly kept several recent games within striking distance, including last week against Denver, and this coaching staff has clearly shifted into “shorten the game and survive” mode. With Kenny Pickett starting against his former team, expect a conservative script built around ball security and field position. Philadelphia doesn’t need style points here, just a win to stop the bleeding, and that usually leads to a vanilla second half if they get in front. Asking the Eagles to win by two touchdowns in these conditions, with this version of their offense, feels aggressive.

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