Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New England +115 over Buffalo

1:00 PM ET. This price is telling us the market still isn’t fully buying what New England has become. Eleven straight wins, a head-to-head win in Buffalo already banked, and a chance to clinch the division at home, yet the Patriots are sitting as a plus-money option in their own building. That’s a classic case of perception lag. Buffalo still carries the “division bully” label, but the standings say otherwise, and the efficiency gap at quarterback this season is much tighter than public narratives suggest. Drake Maye has been surgical all year, protecting the football and sustaining drives, and that profile travels especially well in high-leverage games where one or two mistakes swing the outcome.

Buffalo can absolutely win this game, but the margin for error is thin. They already lost this matchup once, and now they’re walking into Foxborough against a team that hasn’t blinked for two months. New England isn’t relying on fluky finishes or broken plays to survive; they’re controlling games, dictating tempo, and forcing opponents to be clean for four quarters. In a spot where Buffalo essentially needs to play mistake-free to keep its division hopes alive, we’re happy to take the steadier side at plus money. This feels like a coin-flip game priced like something more.

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