Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

New Orleans +125 over Carolina

1:00 PM ET. This feels like a classic division spot where the market is a week late adjusting. Carolina comes out of the bye feeling good about itself, tied atop the NFC South and finally getting some healthier bodies back. That’s fine, but it doesn’t erase what happened the last time these teams met. New Orleans went into Charlotte and flat-out beat the Panthers at their own game — controlled the trenches, won the rushing battle and forced Bryce Young into a 124-yard, no-touchdown afternoon. That wasn’t a fluke. Carolina scored on its opening drive and then disappeared for the next three quarters. For a team that wants to play physical, that’s a bad look against an opponent that’s clearly getting more comfortable in its identity.

The Saints may own one of the league’s uglier records, but the arrow is finally pointing up. They’ve split their last four after starting 1-8, just beat Tampa Bay in the rain, and are playing noticeably cleaner football under Kellen Moore. Tyler Shough isn’t lighting up the box score, but he’s adding value with his legs and avoiding the catastrophic mistakes that buried New Orleans earlier in the year. This is also a Saints team that suddenly looks far more dangerous in division games than the standings suggest. Carolina is being priced like the stable option here, but the tape says otherwise. In a rivalry matchup with everything still on the line, we’ll take the improving home dog at plus money.

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