Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Indianapolis +13.5 over Seattle

4:05 PM ET. The market is clearly telling you what it thinks of Indianapolis right now, and it’s hard to argue with the chaos at quarterback. Daniel Jones is out for the year, Anthony Richardson is still sidelined, and suddenly Philip Rivers is walking through the door at age 44. That’s not a sentence we expected to type in 2025. Still, this number feels inflated by shock value more than substance. Seattle has spent the last two weeks beating up on compromised offenses and backup quarterbacks, and while that looks great in the box score, it’s also exactly how spreads get stretched beyond reason. Asking the Seahawks to separate by two touchdowns against a Colts team still sitting at 8-5 is a big ask, especially with this much randomness injected into the game.

Seattle is rolling and deserves respect, but context matters. They’ve faced Minnesota’s rookie quarterback and a Falcons offense stuck in neutral, and now they’re priced as if that dominance automatically carries over. Indianapolis, meanwhile, knows exactly what it is walking into — simplify the game, lean on structure, and shorten possessions. Rivers doesn’t need to be good; he just needs to be functional. Even if it’s Riley Leonard at some point, the Colts’ path is obvious: survive, keep it ugly, and live to fight late. With Seattle laying the most generous number they’ve seen in weeks, this feels like a classic “hold-your-nose” underdog spot.

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