Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Minnesota +5.5 over Dallas

8:15 PM ET. This number is being shaped by Dallas’ recent offensive box scores, and that’s exactly where we start to get interested in the other side. Yes, Dak Prescott has been piling up yards, but this Cowboys team is still being asked to cover margin in games that matter, not win a fantasy contest. Dallas is coming off a loss where the defense completely lost control, and now they’re laying nearly a touchdown against a Minnesota team that just reminded everyone it still has pulse. The Cowboys’ path to the postseason is narrow, which adds urgency — and pressure — not margin.

Minnesota’s season is hanging by a thread, but last week’s performance wasn’t empty calories. J.J. McCarthy finally played a clean game, protected the football and kept the offense on schedule, which is all the Vikings need when catching points. Justin Jefferson’s usage remains a concern, but that’s already baked into the price. This line assumes Dallas dictates the game from start to finish, and that hasn’t consistently been the case when they face resistance. In a prime-time spot with volatility baked in, grabbing the inflated points with a team that can shorten the game and force Dallas to execute cleanly is the "right" side.

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