Posted at 9:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Dak Prescott under 265.5 passing yards

8:15 PM ET. This number is still living off Dak’s recent box scores, not the matchup in front of him. Minnesota’s defense has quietly shifted into a bend-don’t-break unit that forces longer drives and limits explosive passing plays, especially once teams get into neutral or positive game script. If the Vikings are competitive — and taking back nearly a major, which suggests the market expects exactly that — Dallas has every incentive to lean on the run and shorten the game rather than ask Prescott to drop back 40+ times. Add in Minnesota’s willingness to disguise coverage and force quarterbacks to hold the ball, and this profiles as a volume trap more than an efficiency bet. Dak can play well and still land comfortably under this number.

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