Posted Friday at 2:30pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 1

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Week 1 Sunday Sept 13

Baltimore -3½ over Indianapolis

Everybody knows the arguments against Baltimore here. New head coach. New offensive coordinator. New defensive coordinator. New voices everywhere. Jesse Minter is replacing a regime that had been in place for nearly a decade, while 30-year-old Declan Doyle is taking over an offense built around one of the most unique quarterbacks in NFL history. Meanwhile, Indianapolis is at home getting more than a field goal. Colts +3½ has all the markings of one of those clever little Week 1 home dogs that bettors love discovering. Apparently the oddsmakers didn't get the memo, because instead of hanging Baltimore -2½ or -3, they put the hook on the most important number on the board.

That gets our attention. Oddsmakers understand everything we just mentioned. They know Baltimore is changing regimes. They know Indianapolis is at home. They know Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor and the Colts have enough offensive talent to make this interesting. And yet they're still asking anyone who wants Baltimore to lay 3½ on the road. That's not an insignificant distinction. If the objective were simply to attract Ravens money, Baltimore -3 would look awfully inviting. Instead, the market is making Ravens bettors cross the key number. Sometimes the number itself tells a better story than the 10,000 words written about the game all week.

We're also not automatically treating change in Baltimore as a negative. Sometimes a very good team needs a different voice. Lamar Jackson isn't learning how to play quarterback again. Derrick Henry isn't learning how to run through people. The Ravens still have an established core with players who have been through every conceivable type of big game. What changes is the message, the energy and perhaps the urgency. Minter walks into one of the league's most respected organizations with a roster capable of winning immediately. There's a big difference between rebuilding and refreshing. Baltimore is refreshing. We wouldn't be surprised if this group comes out determined to make a statement for its new coach rather than spending September trying to figure out where the bathrooms are.

Indianapolis, on the other hand, is exactly the type of team that attracts us when getting points at home, which makes passing on them uncomfortable. That's important. We're not interested in laying 3½ because Baltimore has Lamar and Indianapolis has Daniel Jones. That's the lazy argument. We're laying it because the Colts look like the right side and the number still refuses to cooperate. They're home, they're getting the hook, Baltimore has all this uncertainty and yet the Ravens remain more than a field-goal favorite. When an underdog appears to have every attractive betting characteristic and the bookmaker still won't give you Baltimore -3, we're going to respect that.

So we'll resist the temptation to get cute. Baltimore has been one of the NFL's most consistent organizations for years, and now an accomplished roster gets the jolt of a new voice and a new regime. Maybe there are growing pains eventually, but we're willing to bet the initial response is a strong one. The hook is supposed to scare us away from Baltimore and push us toward the comfortable home dog. It's doing the opposite. If Indianapolis is really this live, the oddsmakers had every opportunity to make the Ravens cheaper. They didn't. We'll pay the extra half-point and stick with the better organization, the better roster and a team we expect to respond immediately to its new leadership. Recommemdation: Baltimore -3½

Atlanta +5½ over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM EST. Nothing moves an NFL point spread quite like quarterback news, and nothing causes bettors to lose their minds faster either. Tua Tagovailoa hurts his oblique on Thursday, suddenly Cooper Rush might start, and Atlanta becomes radioactive. Nobody wants them. Perfect. We’ll take Atlanta +5½ and say thank you very much. The market is treating the possible loss of Tua as though Patrick Mahomes just disappeared from the lineup. Tua was released by Miami, signed by Atlanta for $1.3 million and spent the summer competing for this job. Now we're supposed to believe his possible absence transforms Pittsburgh into some powerhouse worthy of laying nearly a touchdowAn? Come on.

What exactly has Pittsburgh done to deserve this kind of respect? They hired Mike McCarthy after Mike Tomlin left, reunited him with a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers and apparently we're supposed to pretend it's 2011 again. Rodgers can still play, but Father Time remains undefeated and he's standing in the pocket with a stopwatch. Pittsburgh may turn out to be decent. They may even make the playoffs. But we're not interested in paying today for what everybody thinks they might become tomorrow. This is precisely how bad favorites are created: recognizable names, familiar uniforms, an attractive narrative and an opponent nobody wants to bet.

Atlanta isn't asking Cooper Rush to become Joe Montana if Tua can't go. Rush has been around the league forever and has started NFL games before. More importantly, Atlanta has Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. There are enough legitimate weapons here for a competent quarterback to function. Yet listen to the discussion surrounding this game and you'd swear Atlanta announced Friday morning that they're holding open quarterback tryouts in the parking lot. That's the overreaction we're interested in. The difference between Tua and Rush might matter, but does it matter enough to justify Atlanta +5½? We don't believe it does.

And that's the entire point of betting numbers instead of football teams. Pittsburgh doesn't have to be terrible for Atlanta to be the right wager. The Steelers simply have to be overpriced, and this number reeks of it. New coach, ancient quarterback, new offense, first game of the season and absolutely nothing has been established yet. Still, bettors are being asked to lay a substantial price because Pittsburgh is at home and Atlanta's quarterback situation looks ugly. Ugly is good. Ugly creates value. If everything about Atlanta looked wonderful, we wouldn't be getting +5½. You don't find bargains at Tiffany's; you find them in the aisle everybody else walked past.

We'll happily walk down that aisle. Let everyone else explain why Pittsburgh can't possibly lose this game and why Atlanta has no chance if Cooper Rush starts. We don't need Atlanta to be better than Pittsburgh. We don't even need Atlanta to win. We need the Falcons to stay inside 5½ points in a Week 1 game featuring a Pittsburgh team that has proven absolutely nothing. If Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy are about to turn back the clock 15 years and become the NFL's newest superpower, we'll tip our cap. Until they prove it, we're not laying inflated points with them because Tua Tagovailoa pulled an oblique on Thursday. Recommendation: Atlanta +5½

Carolina +3½ over Chicago

1:00 PM EST. Sometimes the market tells you everything you need to know about what people want to bet, and this one isn't being subtle. Chicago opened around -2½, moved through the key number of three and is now sitting at -3½, with four potentially next. In other words, Bears money keeps pouring in regardless of the price. We understand the attraction. Chicago won 11 games last year, Caleb Williams took another step forward, Ben Johnson has spent the offseason talking about building one of the most explosive offenses in football, and the Bears have become one of the NFL's sexier teams. Now they're facing Carolina. What could possibly go wrong?

That's precisely the question that should scare anyone laying the points. We're not interested in chasing Chicago after the market has already moved a full point and crossed three. At -2½, perhaps there was value. At -3½, we're paying a premium for everything everybody already loves about the Bears. The media has spent months discussing Williams, Johnson and how dangerous this offense could become. Johnson himself has talked about chasing scoring records, blowouts and building an offensive monster. Great stuff for August headlines. Not necessarily great stuff for finding value at the betting window. When optimism becomes this universal, we're much more interested in selling it than joining the parade.

Carolina isn't nearly as much fun to discuss, and that's why we're getting the hook at home. The Panthers quietly made the playoffs last year, Bryce Young continued to improve, and Tetairoa McMillan emerged as a legitimate No. 1 receiver. More importantly, Carolina doesn't need to prove it's better than Chicago. It doesn't need to score 40 points or win a shootout. It needs to stay within a field goal on its own field. Chicago lived dangerously last season, repeatedly pulling games out late and benefiting enormously from turnovers. Those things have a funny way of looking permanent until suddenly they aren't. We're not interested in paying an inflated Week 1 price because everything broke right for the Bears a year ago.

This is exactly the type of game where we'll trust our principles rather than the popular story. Chicago -2½ disappeared. Chicago -3 disappeared. Now bettors are happily laying -3½, and perhaps they'll be laying four by kickoff. Let them. Every tick upward makes Carolina more attractive. The Bears are the team everybody wants, the Panthers are the team nobody wants, and the market has already made a significant adjustment to accommodate that enthusiasm. We're not chasing the steam after it crossed the most important number on the board. We'll stand with the house, take the home dog and gladly accept the hook. Recommendation: Carolina +3½

Cleveland +8½ over Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST. This number opened Jacksonville -7½ and has been pushed to -8½, which tells you just about everything you need to know about the appetite for Cleveland. Nobody wants the Brownies. We don't blame them. Cleveland went 5-12, Deshaun Watson hasn't played a meaningful snap in nearly two years, Myles Garrett is gone and the entire operation has the smell of something you'd normally leave on the curb Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is coming off a 13-win season, won its final eight regular-season games and Trevor Lawrence is suddenly being discussed like he's ready to enter the MVP conversation. One team is extremely easy to bet. The other requires you to hold your nose and hit submit. That's precisely why Cleveland +8½ interests us.

We're not in the business of determining who stinks and who doesn't. We're not interested in predicting which quarterback will throw for 300 yards or whether Jacksonville's defense can stop the run. That's all fodder. We're interested in price, perception and market overreaction, and the market has spent the last couple of weeks telling us exactly what it thinks. Jacksonville opened -7½ and instead of anybody stepping in to grab Cleveland plus more than a touchdown, Jaguars money kept arriving. Now we're being offered another full point to take the team nobody wanted in the first place. At some point, you have to stop asking which team you'd rather own and start asking which ticket the bookmaker would rather you buy.

Jacksonville might win this game by 20. That's football. But laying 8½ because one team looked great last year and the other looks like a dumpster with shoulder pads is exactly the type of wager recreational bettors make every Sunday. Last year's Jaguars aren't walking through that door with their 13 wins already credited to the standings. Everybody starts 0-0. Expectations have been reset, prices have been adjusted and Jacksonville isn't sneaking up on anybody anymore. The Jaguars have gone from bargain-bin merchandise to the item sitting in the front window with a premium price tag attached. Cleveland, meanwhile, is sitting on the clearance rack with a sticker that says PLEASE TAKE THIS HOME. We'll shop there.

This game likely won't make our board because there are better opportunities out there, but if somebody put a gun to our head and told us we had to bet it, there isn't a chance we'd lay 8½ with Jacksonville. The number has moved against Cleveland, the public perception couldn't be uglier and virtually every conventional argument points toward the Jaguars. That's not a reason to lay the points. That's the reason the points have value. Betting ugly isn't supposed to feel comfortable. If Cleveland +8½ made you feel warm and fuzzy, we wouldn't be getting 8½. Recommndation: Cleveland +8½

New Orleans +6½ over Detroit

1:00 PM EST. We'll start with the number because +6½ has always been one of our favorite underdog numbers in football. Seven is a key number, and everybody knows it. The recreational bettor looks at Detroit -6½ and immediately thinks, Great, they can win by a touchdown and I still cash. That's precisely what makes the number interesting. Oddsmakers could hang Detroit -7 and we seriously doubt it would discourage many Lions bettors. Yet they're making the public lay 6½, giving them the incredibly attractive proposition of needing only a touchdown. When the favorite is this popular and the bookmaker stops just short of seven, we pay attention.

And Detroit is extremely easy to like. The Lions have spent the last several years becoming one of the NFL's glamour teams. Dan Campbell became a celebrity, Detroit became a national story, the prime-time appearances piled up and the Lions went from decades of irrelevance to a team everybody seemingly enjoys rooting for and betting on. New Orleans has traveled in exactly the opposite direction. The Saints have been bad for a long time and, perhaps even worse from a market perspective, they've become irrelevant. Nobody is excited about betting New Orleans. Nobody is talking about them as a contender. Put Detroit and New Orleans beside each other on a betting board and we don't need a survey to figure out where the money wants to go.

But we're not being asked which team is better. Detroit probably is. We're being asked whether the difference between these teams is greater than 6½ points, and that's where perception becomes price. New Orleans showed some legitimate signs of life with Tyler Shough last season, Chris Olave remains a serious weapon and there's enough here to believe the Saints might be better than the stale reputation attached to them. We don't need them to win. We don't need them to become relevant again. We need them to stay within a touchdown against a Detroit team whose stock has been trading at a premium for several years.

That's why the number matters so much. The spread is the great equalizer, and six and a half is a number we've always respected when taking an underdog. Detroit -6½ looks comfortable. New Orleans +6½ looks awful. That's exactly how the betting window is supposed to feel. The Lions are the popular team, the recognizable team and the team bettors can easily envision winning by seven or more. We'll take the other side. Oddsmakers had every opportunity to make this Detroit -7 and didn't. We'll trust the number, buy the depressed stock and take our favorite underdog price in football Recommendation: New Orleans +6½.

Houston +1½ over Buffalo

1:00 PM EST. Josh Allen is Superman. Let's get that out of the way immediately. We're not going to insult anybody's intelligence by suggesting otherwise. Take Allen off Buffalo and we're not sure what the Bills are, but they're certainly not the team everybody spends all summer talking about as a Super Bowl contender. The guy is extraordinary. He can beat you with his arm, his legs or by turning a completely broken play into something ridiculous. If somebody wanted to give him the MVP every year, we wouldn't put up much of an argument. But here's the problem: everybody knows it. The NFL is obsessed with offense, the public is obsessed with quarterbacks, and nobody attracts bettors quite like Josh Allen. Buffalo stock isn't merely high. It's sitting somewhere in the stratosphere.

That's where Houston becomes interesting. We don't have to argue that the Texans have the better quarterback or the prettier offense. We're looking at price and perception, and Buffalo comes into this season carrying enormous expectations while Houston's calling card remains the side of football bettors don't particularly enjoy paying for: defense. The Texans have already demonstrated that they can make Allen uncomfortable, and that's about as much X's-and-O's discussion as we need. This isn't about predicting sacks, turnovers or how many yards somebody rushes for. It's about recognizing that when one of the NFL's glamour teams and its glamour quarterback show up, you're usually paying full retail and then some.

Houston deserves considerably more respect than the market is giving it. The Texans won 12 games last season with a defense capable of wrecking an afternoon, and now they're at home with virtually all the attention pointed toward the other sideline. That's our kind of setup. People love betting Buffalo because watching Allen with a ticket in your pocket is fun. Nobody ever rushed home from work saying, "Honey, hurry up, Houston's defensive front is about to take the field." Defense doesn't sell tickets at the betting window. Josh Allen does. And that discrepancy between what bettors enjoy wagering on and what actually represents value is precisely what we're trying to exploit.

There's another little wrinkle sitting one week down the road. Buffalo returns home next Thursday night for the grand opening of its new stadium against Detroit in prime time. Think there might be a little anticipation surrounding that one? New building, national television, Lions-Bills and an enormous celebration in Buffalo. We're not suggesting the Bills won't be focused here, because these are professionals and that's lazy handicapping. But schedules matter, circumstances matter, and we're certainly not opposed to backing a quality home team when its opponent has one of the biggest regular-season events in franchise history waiting just a few days away.

So give us Houston. We're not fading Josh Allen because we think he's overrated. We're fading Buffalo because everybody knows Josh Allen isn't overrated. There's a difference. The Bills are one of the most recognizable, exciting and heavily supported teams in football, and their stock is priced accordingly. Houston doesn't have to be prettier. It doesn't have to produce the highlights. It just has to expose a Buffalo price carrying too much public enthusiasm. We'll happily stand on the quieter side of the counter and let everyone else line up to buy Superman. Recommendation: Houston +1½.

NY Jets +1½ over Tennessee

1:00 PM EST. There might not be a franchise in professional sports whose stock has been buried longer than the New York Jets. Thirty years of dysfunction, quarterback disasters, coaching changes, false hope and punchlines will do that to you. They went 3-14 last year, forced virtually no turnovers and were outscored by more than 200 points. Nobody trusts them, nobody respects them and nobody wants to bet them. We understand. But here's where things get interesting: Tennessee also went 3-14 and somehow the Titans are laying points. We're not ready to sign off on that. Not even close.

Forget the logos and forget the reputations for a minute. Man for man, we would argue that the Jets have the superior roster. Geno Smith isn't coming back to New York to save the franchise; he doesn't have to. He simply has to manage an offense with Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson and enough legitimate NFL talent around him to compete with Tennessee. Hall is ready to go after the groin issue, and the Jets arrive with new coordinators and virtually no expectations. Tennessee has Cam Ward entering Year 2, Robert Saleh taking over and plenty of changes of its own. Maybe the Titans are headed in the right direction, but what exactly have they accomplished that makes us want to lay points with them?

That's where the price matters. The Jets have been such a toxic asset for so long that the market practically requires a hazmat suit before touching them. Good. This is when we want to buy. We're getting a team whose reputation couldn't be lower at a price that reflects decades of misery rather than just the 60 minutes about to be played. New York comes into Nashville with nothing to lose and nobody expecting anything from them. Tennessee, meanwhile, is being asked to justify favoritism after winning the exact same number of games last season. We don't care that it's only 1½ points. Bad favorites don't become good bets simply because the number is small.

We're not predicting a Jets renaissance. We're not booking the parade or ordering playoff tickets. We're buying a depressed stock before the market has any reason to like it. If the Jets start winning games, this price disappears quickly. Right now we're getting them at maximum pessimism against another three-win team that hasn't earned our money as a favorite. Thirty years of Jets misery is already in the number. That's precisely when you buy, not when everybody finally decides they're good. Tennessee may eventually prove worthy of respect. Until then, they can prove it with our money safely sitting on the other side. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets

Tampa Bay +3½ over Cincinnati

1:00 PM EST. If you wanted to design a Week 1 favorite that practically begs the public to bet it, Cincinnati would be a pretty good place to start. Joe Burrow is back, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are waiting for him, the Bengals supposedly fixed their defense, and they're at home against a Tampa Bay team that completely collapsed down the stretch last season. The Buccaneers started 6-2 and then lost seven of their final nine games. Mike Evans is gone. Cincinnati finished last year going in the opposite direction and enters this season with all kinds of optimism. Bengals -3½. What's not to like? Apparently nothing, because finding somebody eager to bet Tampa Bay this week is like trying to find a salad at a tailgate party

That's exactly why we're taking the Buccaneers. Forget all the garbage about Cincinnati being 5-0 against this division or Tampa being 0-5 against that division. Those numbers couldn't interest us less. We're not handicapping what happened three years ago with different players in different circumstances. We're handicapping today's price and today's perception, and Cincinnati is carrying an enormous amount of positive perception into this opener. Everybody knows Burrow. Everybody knows Chase. Everybody expects the Bengals offense to be outstanding. Everybody has also spent the offseason hearing that Cincinnati rebuilt the defense that held them back last year. Great. If everybody already knows the story, who exactly hasn't had an opportunity to bet it?

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has become extremely easy to dismiss. Baker Mayfield lost Mike Evans, he's working with another new play-caller and the Buccaneers couldn't buy a win during the second half of last season. But Baker can still sling it, Chris Godwin is still around, Bucky Irving gives this offense another legitimate weapon and Tampa isn't showing up here with a bunch of guys they found outside Home Depot on Saturday morning. This is still an NFL team with enough offensive talent to trade punches with Cincinnati. More importantly, we're getting +3½, which means we're crossing the most important number in NFL betting. We don't need Tampa Bay to be better than Cincinnati for the next four months. We need them to be competitive for three hours.

The Bengals may very well be as good as advertised. They may win the AFC North and Burrow may have an MVP-caliber season. None of that means they're the right wager here. Week 1 is where preseason opinions finally collide with reality, and Cincinnati enters with expectations through the roof while Tampa Bay enters with virtually nobody interested in owning them. That's the type of discrepancy we're looking for. We're not betting against Joe Burrow. We're betting against the price attached to Joe Burrow and all the optimism surrounding Cincinnati. Give us the ugly side, give us the hook and let everyone else line up to lay points with the team they're absolutely certain is better. Recommendation: Tampa Bay +3½

Miami +3½ over Las Vegas

4:25 PM EST. We have a pretty simple rule when it comes to bad football teams: we're not interested in spotting points with them. Las Vegas went 3-14 last year and was an offensive disaster, yet here we are in Week 1 being asked to lay more than a field goal with the Raiders. We know all about the offseason changes. New coach, new quarterback, new system, new draft picks and several months of glowing reports about how everything looks different. Wonderful. Wake us up when they actually play a meaningful football game. Until the Raiders show us they're no longer a bad team, we're certainly not paying a premium for the privilege of finding out.

Meanwhile, you would have to dig pretty deep to find a team whose stock is lower than Miami's. The Dolphins are rebuilding, they're carrying an absurd amount of dead money, they're starting Malik Willis, they're loaded with young players and expectations are practically nonexistent. One projection has them as an underdog in every game this season, while their win total sits near the bottom of the league. Early discussion about the 2027 No. 1 draft pick has already begun and they haven't even played Week 1. That's not merely low stock. That's a company everybody thinks is going out of business. Those are precisely the situations where inflated underdog prices can appear.

We don't care what happened in training camp. We don't care how impressive the Raiders' offseason looked, how much everyone likes the new regime or what somebody's ceiling might be. None of it has been proven yet. Las Vegas still has to demonstrate that it deserves to be favored over anybody. Brock Bowers is expected to miss this game, Ashton Jeanty has been dealing with an ankle issue, and the Raiders are transitioning to yet another new coaching staff. Perhaps everything works. Perhaps Las Vegas is significantly improved. But we're not laying 3½ points based on perhaps. The market is charging us today for improvement that hasn't happened yet.

Miami is ugly. We know it. Everybody knows it. That's the entire point. The Dolphins don't have to contend for anything this year and they don't even have to win this game. We simply need the team whose stock has hit rock bottom to stay within a field goal against a team that won three games last year. The spread is the great equalizer, and we're getting the hook with the team nobody wants against a favorite that hasn't earned the right to be one. If Las Vegas wants our respect, they can earn it first. Until then, we'll gladly take the points. Recommendation: Miami +3½.

Minnesota +1½ over Green Bay

4:25 PM EST. Markets don't like uncertainty, and Minnesota has plenty of it at quarterback. Kyler Murray arrives after his career in Arizona went sideways, and apparently the conclusion is that the guy suddenly forgot how to play. We're not buying it. Murray has shown stretches of brilliance in this league. He can throw it, he can run it and he can make plays very few quarterbacks are capable of making. Now consider the price. Minnesota is laying just 1½ points at home to Green Bay. That's not a premium price for Murray. That's a clearance price because the market isn't sure what it's getting.

Let's not forget what Minnesota accomplished last year. The Vikings finished 9-8 despite getting lousy quarterback play, and now they're replacing that mess with a former No. 1 overall pick who has already demonstrated an elite ceiling in this league. More importantly, Murray has never operated with this type of setup. He has Justin Jefferson and an outstanding collection of receiving talent. He has protection. He has Kevin O'Connell designing the offense. Instead of spending every Sunday trying to manufacture something in Arizona, Murray walks into an organization that can actually put him in position to succeed. Why everybody is writing this dude off at 29 years old is beyond us.

That's where we believe the value is. Murray is being priced as though Minnesota acquired the Arizona version of him, baggage and all, instead of considering what he might become in a dramatically better environment. Meanwhile, Green Bay remains Green Bay, and that name carries weight at the betting window. The Packers are familiar, respected and comfortable to bet. Minnesota is dealing with the unknown. Give the market a choice between something familiar and something uncertain and it'll almost always make you pay more for the familiar. We'll happily take the discount.

Minnesota is roughly 5-1 to win the NFC North, which also strikes us as remarkable for a roster that may be as talented as any in the division. We're not suggesting Murray is suddenly going to become the league MVP, but he doesn't have to. If he's merely a significant upgrade over what Minnesota put behind center last season, this team has considerable upside. The market will adjust quickly if that becomes obvious, but right now we're getting in before it does. A 9-8 team upgraded dramatically at quarterback and is laying only 1½ at home. We'll buy the uncertainty while it's still cheap.Recommendation: Minnesota -1½.

Washington +5½ over Philadelphia

4:25 PM EST. It wasn't very long ago that Washington was playing Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game and Jayden Daniels looked like the next great quarterback in this league. Then Daniels played only seven games last season, Washington collapsed to 5-12 and suddenly everybody wants off the train. Funny how quickly things change in the NFL. We're not going to pretend last season didn't happen, but we're also not going to price Washington as though Daniels wasn't missing for most of it. The Commanders' stock has gone from the penthouse to the basement in about 20 months, and now we're being offered +5½ with Daniels back on the field. That's interesting.

Of course, Philadelphia is the comfortable side. The Eagles are the established contender with Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and one of the league's nastiest defensive fronts. Meanwhile, we've heard all summer about Washington's offensive-line problems, Laremy Tunsil's injury, its lousy preseason and every other reason the Commanders supposedly aren't ready. We don't care about preseason scores and we certainly aren't interested in handicapping August practices. If Washington had looked fantastic all summer, we wouldn't be getting +5½. The bad news isn't some secret we've uncovered. It's precisely why this number exists.

What matters to us is that Daniels changes everything. This isn't some replacement-level quarterback returning from injury. We've already seen what Washington looks like when he's healthy, and now he has Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs to work with. Daniels can create when protection breaks down, extend drives with his legs and turn a play that appears dead into six points. That's exactly the type of quarterback we want when taking this many points. Philadelphia can control portions of this game and still find Washington hanging around because Daniels doesn't need everything around him to be perfect to create offense.

We're not calling for Philadelphia's demise and we don't need Washington to win the NFC East. We're buying a depressed stock with a potentially elite quarterback while everyone else is paying a premium for the established commodity. The Commanders were a disaster last year, and the market has made sure everybody knows it. Fine by us. The spread is the great equalizer, and +5½ with Jayden Daniels is considerably more attractive to us than laying a big divisional price with the team everybody already knows is good. Washington has been written off quickly. We'll take advantage of it before Daniels gives the market a reason to remember why everybody was so excited about him in the first place. Recommendation: Washington +5½.

Arizona +9½ over L.A. Chargers

4:25 PM EST. Justin Herbert gets plenty of accolades, and we're not here to argue that he doesn't deserve them. He's big, talented, has a cannon for an arm and annually gets discussed as one of the league's premier quarterbacks. Now the Chargers enter the season with healthy tackles, Mike McDaniel added to the offensive operation and expectations running high. Put all of that against an Arizona team coming off a 3-14 disaster and you get one of the easiest Week 1 conclusions imaginable: the Chargers are going to bury them. Apparently all that's required is laying 9½ points. No thanks.

+9½ is an enormous number in this league, particularly in Week 1 when much of what everybody believes is still based on projections. The Chargers might be excellent. Arizona might stink. Both can be true and Cardinals +9½ can still be the right wager. We're not laying close to double digits because Los Angeles won 11 games last year while Arizona won three. Those records are gone. New season, new coaches, new personnel and new circumstances. Yet the price is asking us to treat last year's perception as though nothing has changed.

Arizona is exactly the type of team nobody wants to touch, which is generally when we become interested. Kyler Murray is gone, Mike LaFleur takes over, Jacoby Brissett is starting and the roster isn't going to generate many Super Bowl futures. Beautiful. Brissett is precisely the type of veteran quarterback we're comfortable taking this many points with. He doesn't have to outplay Herbert. He doesn't have to turn Arizona into a contender. He simply has to operate an offense with Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson and enough legitimate pieces to keep the Cardinals hanging around. The spread is the great equalizer, and 9½ does a lot of equalizing.

This is really a wager against the Chargers' price rather than some declaration that Arizona has arrived. Los Angeles stock is high, Herbert is universally respected and almost every preseason discussion surrounding the Chargers has been positive. Arizona's stock couldn't be much lower. That's how we end up with 9½ points in a league where one possession can change everything. If the Chargers want to win by 17, we'll tip our cap. But we're not paying full retail for Herbert and all the optimism surrounding Los Angeles. Give us the forgotten team, the ugly ticket and almost double digits.. Recommendation: Arizona +7½.

Dallas -2½ over New York Giants

8:20 PM EST. The market has learned its lesson with Dallas. Every summer the Cowboys arrive with talent, expectations and Jerry Jones telling anyone with a microphone how wonderful everything is going to be. Then January arrives and everybody wonders why they fell for it again. After enough disappointment, bettors eventually stop believing. That's where we are now. Dallas stock isn't high anymore, and we're being asked to lay only 2½ points against a Giants team getting all kinds of attention because John Harbaugh has arrived. You'll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of John Harbaugh.

Harbaugh is a terrific coach. Great. He's still installing a new system with a young quarterback in Jaxson Dart, and everything surrounding New York is new. New coach, new direction, new terminology and new expectations. Maybe it all works beautifully, but we're not interested in paying for the excitement before seeing it on the field. The Giants are getting credit for what everyone believes Harbaugh is going to accomplish. Dallas, meanwhile, is being discounted because of everything it has failed to accomplish. We'll take proven talent at a depressed price over offseason optimism every time.

And Dallas is absolutely loaded with talent. Dak Prescott may have his flaws, but we're not sure why he's so routinely dismissed when discussing the league's elite quarterbacks. Put him in this offense with CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and this collection of weapons and Prescott has every opportunity to put up monster numbers. We wouldn't be remotely surprised if he's in the MVP conversation deep into the season. Dallas also spent the offseason rebuilding a defense that was an embarrassment last year. There is a new direction here too, except nobody seems particularly interested in talking about it because we've all been conditioned to roll our eyes whenever the Cowboys are mentioned.

That's the dynamic we want. The Giants are receiving the benefit of the doubt because Harbaugh walked through the door, while Dallas is carrying years of baggage into a game that has nothing to do with those previous disappointments. The spread is the great equalizer, and laying less than a field goal with the team we believe has considerably more established talent is a price we're willing to pay. If the Cowboys disappoint again, there will be plenty of time to get off them. We're not starting there. At -2½, we'll buy Dallas before the market remembers how talented this roster actually is Recommendation: New York +2½