Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

L.A. Rams -6½ -110 over N.Y. Giants

8:15 PM EST. If you watched football last week and again yesterday, laying nearly a touchdown with the Rams tonight probably feels like the dumbest thing you could possibly do. Good. That's precisely why we're interested. We're not going to spend four paragraphs telling you about Matthew Stafford, Sean McVay's play-action offense or whether Aaron Donald can still wreck a game. You can find that stuff anywhere. This one is about price, perception and what 60 minutes of football can do to both.

Nobody needed an introduction to the Rams coming into this season. They were hyped all summer as one of the best teams in football. Myles Garrett arrived, the roster was loaded, expectations went through the roof and by opening day seemingly everybody wanted a piece of Los Angeles. The Rams were laying around four against San Francisco and looked like a bargain. Then the game started. Los Angeles shit the bed, the favorite went down and everyone who spent the summer hearing how great this team was suddenly wanted nothing to do with it. That's how quickly perception changes in this league.

The Giants produced exactly the opposite reaction. They went into last week as a small home dog against Dallas and controlled much of the game. Jaxson Dart made plays with his arm and legs, New York ran the football effectively and the Cowboys spent a good portion of the night looking like the team that should have been getting points. So now think about the person betting this game tonight. If you backed the Rams last week, are you excited about laying almost a touchdown with them now? Of course not. If you backed the Giants last week, are you suddenly eager to jump off after they rewarded you? Not a chance. One team burned the market and the other made it look easy. That's an awfully powerful combination.

And we've just come through a Sunday that made laying points feel even more dangerous. Baltimore went down outright as an 8½-point favorite. Tampa Bay went down outright laying eight. Kansas City was laying roughly a touchdown Sunday night and needed overtime just to survive, never threatening to cover. Big underdogs have been punching people in the mouth, and anyone who spent Sunday laying points probably woke up this morning promising never to do it again. Now Monday night arrives and the last game on the board asks those same bettors to lay 6½ with a Rams team that disappointed everyone a week ago against a Giants team that just impressed everyone. You couldn't design a better invitation to take the points.

The line tells the story. Los Angeles opened around -7½ and we're now seeing -6½, with the possibility that another six shows up before kickoff. Money has been pushing toward New York, and it's not difficult to understand why. But we're not interested in betting what happened last week as though it has to happen again this week. We don't particularly like laying 6½. We don't particularly like the Rams. That's not the exercise. The exercise is identifying when one week of football has changed perception far more dramatically than it has changed the underlying teams. Last week everyone wanted Los Angeles and wanted no part of New York. Seven days later they've switched jerseys. We'll switch sides.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------